银河期货沥青日报-20260114

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The situation in Iran continues to escalate, and oil prices are strong. However, the market has gradually digested the impact of Venezuela on oil prices, and the expectation of tight asphalt raw material supply has eased. The increase in raw material discounts has not been fully traded, and the market shows high - level fluctuations. At the beginning of the year, the off - season has arrived as scheduled. The weekly supply and demand have decreased simultaneously on a month - on - month basis. The industrial chain inventory remains at a low level, and the spot price is relatively firm. The short - term disk is expected to fluctuate at a high level [8]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Part 1: Related Data - Futures Prices and Positions: On January 14, 2026, the price of BU2603 (the main contract) was 3168 yuan, up 28 yuan or 0.89% from the previous day; BU2604 was 3172 yuan, up 28 yuan or 0.89%; BU2605 was 3175 yuan, up 94 yuan or 3.05%; SC2602 was 445.5 yuan, down 0.1 yuan or - 0.02%; the price of Brent's first - line contract was 65.22 US dollars, up 1.1 US dollars or 1.68%. The main contract's position was 20.3 million lots, down 0.5 million lots or - 2.20%; the main contract's trading volume was 19.9 million lots, down 8.1 million lots or - 28.99%. The warehouse receipt quantity was 46450 tons, up 5800 tons or 14.27% [3]. - Basis and Spread: The BU04 - 05 spread was - 3.00 yuan, down 66.00 yuan or - 104.76%; the BU04 - 03 spread was - 4.00 yuan, unchanged; the Shandong - main contract basis was 58.00 yuan, down 8.00 yuan or - 12.12%; the East China - main contract basis was - 22.00 yuan, down 28.00 yuan or - 466.67%; the South China - main contract basis was 8.00 yuan, down 28.00 yuan or - 77.78% [3]. - Industrial Chain Spot Prices: The Shandong market price was 3100 yuan, up 20 yuan or 0.65%; the East China market price was 3150 yuan, unchanged; the South China market price was 3180 yuan, unchanged; Shandong gasoline was 7087 yuan, up 41 yuan or 0.58%; Shandong diesel was 5832 yuan, up 54 yuan or 0.93%; Shandong petroleum coke was 2970 yuan, unchanged; the diluted asphalt discount was - 13.2, unchanged; the central parity rate of the exchange rate was 7.0120, up 0.0017 or 0.02% [3]. - Spread and Profit: The asphalt refinery profit was - 2.93 yuan, down 22.82 yuan or 114.73%; the refined oil comprehensive profit was 68.66 yuan, down 14.11 yuan or - 17.05%; the BU - SC cracking spread was - 445.07 yuan, up 25.51 yuan or 5.42%; the gasoline spot - Brent spread was 730.76 yuan, down 21.33 yuan or - 2.84%; the diesel spot - Brent spread was 310.14 yuan, down 9.83 yuan or - 3.07% [3]. Part 2: Market Analysis - Market Overview: On January 14, the average price of the domestic asphalt market was 3239 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.03% from the previous day. In the Shandong market, the supply decreased slightly, and the prices of crude oil and asphalt futures rose, which boosted market sentiment. Traders slightly raised their shipping prices. In the East China market, the high - priced resources in the social inventory were not sold well, but the main refineries' road and shipping deliveries were good, and the asphalt price was stable. In the South China market, some main refineries limited their shipments, and the local price remained firm [6]. - Market in Different Regions: In the Shandong market, the mainstream transaction price rose to 3130 - 3220 yuan/ton. The rise in crude oil prices drove up the asphalt futures price, and most traders slightly raised their shipping prices. However, the terminal demand was weak, and the mainstream transaction price was still at the lower end. In the Yangtze River Delta market, the mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3210 - 3210 yuan/ton. The main refineries produced asphalt stably, and the road and shipping deliveries were smooth, which reduced the refinery inventory. In the South China market, the mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3080 - 3150 yuan/ton. The supply and demand were balanced, and some resources were sold at a premium due to limited shipments from some main refineries [6][7]. - Market Outlook: The situation in Iran is escalating, and oil prices are strong. The impact of Venezuela on oil prices has been digested, and the expectation of tight asphalt raw material supply has eased. The market shows high - level fluctuations. At the beginning of the year, the off - season has arrived, with simultaneous month - on - month decreases in supply and demand. The inventory is low, the spot price is firm, and the short - term disk is expected to fluctuate at a high level [8]. Part 3: Related Attachments - The report includes figures such as the closing price of the BU main contract, the position of the BU main contract, the market price of asphalt in East China, the market price of asphalt in Shandong, the price of Shandong local refinery gasoline, and the price of Shandong local refinery diesel [10].