Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Rubber: On Wednesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume and open interest, surging then giving back gains, and stabilizing with a slight upward shift in the intraday price center to around 16,160 yuan/ton. The contract closed with a 0.53% increase at 16,160 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 month spread premium widened to 20 yuan/ton. The domestic rubber market is currently driven by supply - demand fundamentals, and rubber prices may maintain a moderately bullish and volatile pattern [6]. - Methanol: On Wednesday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of decreasing volume and open interest, being moderately bullish and volatile, and closing with a slight increase. The price reached a high of 2,310 yuan/ton and a low of 2,263 yuan/ton, closing 1.15% higher at 2,288 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 month spread discount narrowed to 0 yuan/ton. With differences between bulls and bears emerging, methanol futures maintained a stable and volatile trend [6]. - Crude Oil: On Wednesday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2603 showed a trend of increasing volume and open interest, being moderately bullish and volatile, and slightly rebounding. The price reached a high of 454.3 yuan/barrel and a low of 444.4 yuan/barrel, closing 1.96% higher at 448.0 yuan/barrel. Geopolitical factors have become prominent again, overriding the weak supply - demand fundamentals, and short - term oil prices are expected to maintain a moderately bullish pattern [6]. 3. Summaries by Section 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Rubber: As of January 4, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 548,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23,500 tons (4.48%). As of January 9, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.78%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.97 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 55.50%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.43 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.37 percentage points. In December 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 57.7%, a year - on - year increase of 7.5 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 2.1 percentage points. The LPI in December 2025 was 52.4%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5 percentage points. In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of about 16% and a year - on - year increase of about 13%. In 2025, the total sales of China's heavy - truck market reached a new high of 1.137 million vehicles in the past four years, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [8][9]. - Methanol: As of the week of January 9, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 86.38%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.20%, a month - on - month increase of 2.64%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 6.72%. The average weekly methanol output was 2.0424 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18,900 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 139,200 tons. As of the week of January 9, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 31.05%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.65%; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 7.30%, a week - on - week increase of 1.51%; the acetic acid operating rate was 81.89%, a week - on - week increase of 4.28%; the MTBE operating rate was 58.12%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 81.65%, a week - on - week increase of 0.33 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 1.17%. As of January 9, 2026, the futures profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 270 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 30 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 264 yuan/ton. The port methanol inventory in East and South China was 1.1593 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,800 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 402,300 tons. As of the week of December 31, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory was 422,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 18,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 49,000 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 80,500 tons [10][11][12]. - Crude Oil: As of the week of January 2, 2026, the number of active US oil drilling rigs was 412, a week - on - week increase of 3 and a year - on - year decrease of 70. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.811 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 16,000 barrels per day and a significant year - on - year increase of 248,000 barrels per day. As of the week of January 2, 2026, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 419 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 3.832 million barrels and a significant year - on - year increase of 4.414 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 22.84 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 728,000 barrels; the US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 413.5 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 245,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 94.7%, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 0.2 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 1.4 percentage points. As of January 6, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 57,352 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 7,239 contracts and a 2.41% decrease from the December average. As of January 6, 2026, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 120,686 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 6,220 contracts and a 14.44% increase from the December average [13][14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,850 yuan/ton | +50 yuan/ton | 16,160 yuan/ton | +185 yuan/ton | - 310 yuan/ton | - 135 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,280 yuan/ton | +13 yuan/ton | 2,288 yuan/ton | +25 yuan/ton | - 8 yuan/ton | - 12 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 417.2 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | 448.0 yuan/barrel | +1.3 yuan/barrel | - 30.8 yuan/barrel | - 1.2 yuan/barrel | [16] 3.3 Related Charts The report provides various charts for rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including basis, month - to - month spreads, inventory, and operating rate charts, but no specific analysis of these charts is provided in the text [17][30][42].
橡胶甲醇原油：积极因素提振能化偏强运行
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2026-01-14 09:57