2025年12月美国CPI数据点评：核心通胀降温，降息预期不改

Inflation Data - December CPI year-on-year growth is 2.7%, month-on-month growth is 0.3%, both in line with market expectations and previous values[2] - Core CPI year-on-year growth is 2.6%, the lowest level since March 2021, and below the expected 2.7%; month-on-month growth is 0.2%, also below the expected 0.3%[2] Core Inflation Insights - Core goods show a significant decline with a month-on-month growth rate of 0% in December, down from 0.2% in the previous month; core services slightly increased to 0.3% from 0.2%[2] - Notable increases in specific categories: energy services (1.0%), entertainment services (1.8%), and food prices (0.7%), all higher than the previous month by 1.7%, 1.4%, and 0.5% respectively[2] Interest Rate Expectations - Market expectations for interest rate cuts remain largely unchanged, with the CME model indicating a 100% probability of no change in January and the highest likelihood of a cut in June, followed by another in September, totaling two cuts for the year[2] - Capital market reactions show limited changes, with the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield slightly declining post-data release and major U.S. stock indices, including the XBI index, closing lower[2] Geopolitical and Economic Risks - Risks include potential escalation in U.S.-China tensions, geopolitical crises, and unexpected global economic pressures, which could impact trade and financial markets significantly[5]