银河期货油脂日报-20260114

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, the overall oil market is expected to fluctuate, with increased volatility. Palm oil can consider high - selling and low - buying operations, and soybean oil may follow the overall trend due to lack of independent drivers. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [8][9][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Data Analysis - Price and Basis: The closing price of soybean oil 2605 is 8000 yuan, up 14 yuan. Palm oil 2605 is 8748 yuan, down 30 yuan. Rapeseed oil 2605 is 8949 yuan, down 68 yuan. The basis of each variety varies by region [2] - Monthly Spread: The 5 - 9 monthly spread of soybean oil is 138 yuan, down 6 yuan; palm oil is 66 yuan, down 34 yuan; rapeseed oil is 19 yuan, down 12 yuan [2] - Cross - Variety Spread: The 05 - contract Y - P spread is - 748 yuan, up 44 yuan; OI - Y is 949 yuan, down 82 yuan; OI - P is 201 yuan, down 38 yuan. The oil - meal ratio is 2.91, up 0.02 [2] - Import Profit: The on - paper profit of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia is - 85 yuan, and the on - paper profit of rapeseed oil from Rotterdam is - 1406 yuan [2] - Weekly Commercial Inventory: As of the 2nd week of 2026, the commercial inventory of soybean oil is 102.5 tons, down from last week; palm oil is 73.6 tons, up slightly; rapeseed oil is 25.1 tons, down from last week [2] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - International Market: Indonesia has cancelled the plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio to 50% this year, maintaining the current 40% palm - based fuel and 60% diesel ratio. Starting from March 1st, Indonesia will raise the export levy on crude palm oil from 10% to 12.5%, and the levy on refined products will also increase by 2.5 percentage points [4] - Domestic Market - Palm Oil: As of January 9, 2026, the national key - area commercial inventory of palm oil is 73.6 tons, a 0.30% increase from last week. The import profit inversion has narrowed. The market rumors of 4 near - month purchases. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is not recommended to chase the high [4][5] - Domestic Market - Soybean Oil: The actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills last week was 176.58 tons, with an operating rate of 48.58%. As of January 9, 2026, the national key - area commercial inventory of soybean oil is 102.51 tons, a 5.17% decrease from last week. The supply is sufficient, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [5] - Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil: The rapeseed crushing volume of coastal oil mills last week was 0 tons, with an operating rate of 0%. As of January 9, 2026, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 25.1 tons, a decrease of 2.2 tons. The import profit inversion has widened. The near - month contract has both upward pressure and downward support [6] 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Short - term, the oil market fluctuates. Palm oil can use high - selling and low - buying strategies, and soybean oil may follow the overall trend [8] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [9] - Options: Wait and see [10] 3.4 Relevant Attachments - The report provides 8 figures, showing the spot basis of different oils and their monthly spreads and cross - variety spreads from 2017 - 2026 [13][14][17]