Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-01-14 10:27Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View - PE supply - demand drivers are not significant, and it is expected to fluctuate with oil prices in the short - term. Pay attention to the support around 6730 and the pressure around 6890 on the daily K - line [2]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Futures Market - Futures主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) is 6820, up 54; 1 - month contract is 6655, up 105; 5 - month contract is 6820, up 54; 9 - month contract is 6855, up 53 [2]. - Volume (daily, lots) is 564,696, up 9,740; Open interest (daily, lots) is 466,526, down 10,862 [2]. - 1 - 5 spread is - 165, up 51; Futures top 20 long positions: polyethylene (daily, lots) is 436,624, up 209; Futures top 20 short positions: polyethylene (daily, lots) is 467,191, down 14,021; Futures top 20 net long positions: polyethylene (daily, lots) is - 30,567, up 14,230 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - LLDPE(7042) average price: North China (daily, yuan/ton) is 6,868.7, up 73.48; LLDPE(7042) average price: East China (daily, yuan/ton) is 6,971.4, up 126.98 [2]. - Basis is 48.7, up 19.48 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - FOB: Middle price: Naphtha: Singapore region (daily, US dollars/barrel) is 59.63, up 0.31; CFR: Middle price: Naphtha: Japan region (daily, US dollars/ton) is 561.25, up 3.25 [2]. - Ethylene: CFR Southeast Asia: Middle price (daily, US dollars/ton) is 711, unchanged; Ethylene: CFR Northeast Asia: Middle price (daily, US dollars/ton) is 731, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Operating rate: PE: Petrochemical: National (daily, %) is 83.67, up 0.43 [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Operating rate: Polyethylene(PE): Packaging film (weekly, %) is 48.96, up 0.55; Operating rate: Polyethylene(PE): Pipes (weekly, %) is 29.5, down 0.67; Operating rate: Polyethylene(PE): Agricultural film (weekly, %) is 37.89, down 1.06 [2]. 3.6 Option Market - 20 - day historical volatility: Polyethylene (daily, %) is 16.65, down 0.61; 40 - day historical volatility: Polyethylene (daily, %) is 14.38, up 0.02 [2]. - At - the - money put option implied volatility: Polyethylene (daily, %) is 16.09, up 0.68; At - the - money call option implied volatility: Polyethylene (daily, %) is 16.09, up 0.69 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - From January 2nd to 8th, China's polyethylene production was 686,800 tons, up 0.52% from last week; Polyethylene production enterprises' capacity utilization rate was 83.67%, up 0.43 percentage points from the previous period [2]. - From January 2nd to 8th, PE downstream operating rate increased 0.1% week - on - week, with agricultural film operating rate down 1.1% and packaging film operating rate up 0.6% [2]. - As of January 7th, PE production enterprises' inventory was 395,400 tons, up 6.66% week - on - week; As of January 9th, PE social inventory was 484,300 tons, down 0.11% week - on - week [2]. - From January 3rd to 9th, the cost of oil - based LLDPE decreased 0.56% to 6,920 yuan/ton, and the oil - based profit increased 159 yuan/ton to - 472 yuan/ton; The cost of coal - based LLDPE increased 0.50% to 6,397 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit increased 97 yuan/ton to 34 yuan/ton [2]. - Last week, Maoming Petrochemical's 110,000 - ton and Yangzi Petrochemical's 200,000 - ton plants stopped, while Zhanjiang BASF's 500,000 - ton plant restarted, leading to a slight increase in PE production [2]. - This week, Lanzhou Petrochemical's 200,000 - ton plant is under maintenance, and Guangdong Petrochemical's 400,000 - ton plant had a short - term stop, and the impact of some previously stopped plants has expanded, so PE production and capacity utilization are expected to decline [2].