Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polyester industry chain is currently facing a situation of strong upstream and weak downstream. The geopolitical situation overseas has led to a stronger upward trend in the cost - end, providing certain support to the market. However, the seasonal decline in the terminal has dragged down the market, and downstream negative feedback is gradually accumulating. Polyester raw materials are moving in a volatile manner in the game between upstream and downstream [4][12]. Summary by Related Catalogs PX Market - Since early January, due to the unstable overseas situation, the oil price center has been continuously rising. In 2025, there was no new PX production capacity, and the production capacity showed a negative growth after excluding long - shut - down devices. The production increased by 1%. The profit of PX short - and medium - process devices has improved significantly. Currently, PX - N is at $340/ton, and PX - MX is also at a recent high of $148/ton. The high profit has stimulated the high operating rate of PX. The load of PX in mainland China has risen to around 91%, and the load in other Asian regions has also reached a two - year high. The maintenance volume of PX devices at home and abroad in the first quarter is limited. Seasonal inventory accumulation is expected to increase, but in the medium and long term, PX is expected to remain strong in the first half of this year [5]. PTA Market - In 2025, the average spot processing fee of PTA was only 257 yuan/ton, a new low in recent years. Some small and medium - sized devices with poor competitiveness gradually withdrew from the market. After excluding 262.5 million tons of long - shut - down devices, the PTA production capacity at the end of 2025 was 92.09 million tons, a 7% increase from the end of 2024. The annual production growth rate was only 2% due to low profits. In 2026, there are no new PTA devices planned to be put into operation. With about 4 million tons of new polyester production capacity planned to be put into operation downstream, the processing fee of PTA is expected to improve. Recently, the PTA processing difference has improved from less than 200 yuan/ton in late December to over 300 yuan/ton. The current PTA device load is 78%, and the average load is expected to decline again. According to the average operating load of 88 - 89% in January, the monthly inventory accumulation of PTA is about 100,000 tons, with a small accumulation range [6]. Terminal and Polyester Market - As the year - end approaches, the terminal loom load has begun to decline rapidly, and the current load in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has dropped to around 56%. It is expected to decline more significantly after late January. However, the polyester market in the middle link has shown great resilience. The current average operating rate of polyester is still at a recent high of 90.8%. The high operating rate of polyester benefits from the good inventory level. Although there has been some inventory accumulation recently due to insufficient downstream procurement, the inventory pressure is relatively small. Mainstream filament manufacturers have decided to start a continuous production cut of 15% from January 14, involving FDY and POY, and may increase the production cut according to market conditions [7][10]. MEG Market - After excluding 1.045 million tons of long - shut - down devices at the end of 2025, the domestic ethylene glycol production capacity was adjusted to 29.23 million tons. In early January, the domestic average load was 73.9%. There were maintenance plans for some ethylene - based devices, and the load of coal - based devices continued to increase, with the current average load at a high of 79%. New devices have been put into operation, and the ethylene glycol port inventory has risen to 737,000 tons, with room for further increase. Overseas, some devices have been shut down, but the overall supply is still relatively abundant. Recently, the profits of different ethylene glycol processes have shown differentiation, and the ethylene glycol price has shown a strong and volatile trend under the influence of coal price [8][9]. Short - fiber Market - Since the end of 2025, the short - fiber load has been operating at a high level, reaching a historical high of 97.6%. The good export data in 2025 has alleviated the pressure of poor domestic sales. The new production capacity of short - fiber is limited, and the factory's inventory management is good. The current short - fiber inventory is still in a low - level range in the past year. Affected by raw materials, the current spot processing fee is below 1,000 yuan/ton. During the Spring Festival this year, short - fiber factories are not very willing to carry out maintenance and are expected to maintain a high - load operation. The average operating rate of pure polyester yarn factories is 70.4%, and the yarn factory's processing profit has increased [13]. Bottle - chip Market - Since mid - last year, due to low profits, factories have carried out centralized production cuts. The average load of bottle - chip factories has been maintained at around 80%. With the acceleration of year - end shipments, the average inventory pressure of bottle - chip factories has been relieved, and the current inventory is around 15 days. Recently, the bottle - chip processing fee has improved to 515 yuan/ton, and the average factory load has reached 83%. A new 300,000 - ton device was put into operation at the end of last year. As of now, the domestic bottle - chip production capacity has reached 21.47 million tons, a 5% increase from the end of 2024. There is no new production capacity in the first half of 2026, and the total maintenance during the Spring Festival is not large. Attention should be paid to the opportunity to protect the processing fee at high prices [14]. Important Data - On January 13, the PX - N spread was $338/ton, and the PTA processing fee was 302 yuan/ton [19]. - On January 12, the ethylene glycol port inventory in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 740,000 tons, and at the end of December, the MEG factory inventory was 358,000 tons. In early January, the MEG raw material inventory of polyester factories was 14 days [25][29]. - From January to November 2025, the cumulative import of MEG was 6.8849 million tons, a 15.2% increase compared to the same period last year [34]. - In the week of January 9, the polyester operating rate was 90.8%, and the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rate was 56% [41]. - In December 2025, textile and clothing exports were $25.992 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 7.4% and a month - on - month increase of 8.9%. Among them, textile exports were $12.58 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 4.2%, and clothing exports were $13.41 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 10.2%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative retail sales of textile, clothing, footwear, and knitting products in China were 135.97 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5% [62][63][67].
聚酯：上方偏强带来淡季支撑
Hong Ye Qi Huo·2026-01-14 10:21