宏观金融日报-20260114

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term index of the stock index futures market may continue to oscillate and adjust. If the trading volume of the two markets can remain above 3 trillion or expand, the market risk is low; otherwise, attention should be paid. It is recommended that investors focus on the structure rather than the index, wait for the volatility to decrease, and be aware of the possible disturbances caused by the annual report performance forecasts of listed companies near the end of January [5]. - For treasury bond futures, it is not advisable to short at present when the long - term bond valuation is at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see and closely monitor the central bank's open - market operation trends [10]. - For precious metals, the short - term opening of the import window may increase the capital cashing pressure that has been driving the internal - external premium, but the physical shortage in the New York market may only ease with the marginal weakening of investment and industrial demand [13]. - For the container shipping index, if the cargo volume before the Spring Festival fails to meet expectations, the spot freight rate may reach an inflection point in mid - to - late January. There is still an expectation of pre - shipment in the first quarter, and the freight rate may have marginal support. Spot enterprises should mainly hold hedging orders, and enterprises with shipping contracts before the Spring Festival should close their long - hedging positions on the futures side. The 04 contract should not be overly shorted in the short term, and attention can be paid to the positive arbitrage opportunity between the EC2604 and EC2608 contracts [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.当日要闻 - China's exports denominated in US dollars increased by 6.6% year - on - year in December 2025, and the year - on - year increase in imports expanded to 5.7%. In 2025, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports exceeded 45 trillion yuan for the first time [2]. - On January 14, the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchanges adjusted the margin ratio for margin trading, raising the minimum margin ratio for investors to buy securities on margin from 80% to 100% [2]. - The Trump administration approved NVIDIA to sell its second - most powerful AI chips to China, and the US relaxed the regulatory rules for exporting H200 chips to China [2]. - The US government recorded a budget deficit of $145 billion in December, a 67% or $58 billion increase from the same period last year. The net tariff revenue in December was $27.9 billion [3]. - The core inflation in the US slowed down more than expected in December. The year - on - year increase in core CPI was 2.6%, the lowest level in nearly five years, and the year - on - year increase in CPI was 2.7%, in line with expectations [3]. - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, said that if the economic outlook is realized, the Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates [4]. 3.2.品种观点 3.2.1. Stock Index Futures - On Wednesday, the market rose first and then fell. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.31%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets expanded compared with the previous trading day. Among the underlying indexes of stock index futures, the CSI 300 fell 0.40%, the SSE 50 fell 0.67%, the CSI 500 rose 1.04%, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.66%. Among the current - month contracts of stock index futures, IF2601 fell 0.63%, IH2601 fell 0.79%, IC2601 rose 0.64%, and IM2601 rose 0.08% [5]. - The computer, comprehensive, and communication sectors led the gains, while the banking, real estate, and non - bank financial sectors led the losses [5]. - Market regulations have been frequent in the first three trading days of this week, which led to a market decline in the afternoon. Since December 16, the Shanghai Composite Index has continued to rise, and the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets has refreshed the historical high for three consecutive days [5]. 3.2.2. Treasury Bond Futures - On Wednesday, the central bank conducted 240.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 28.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net investment of 212.2 billion yuan. The money market was tight, and the overnight repurchase rate was 1.39% [10]. - Affected by the non - renewal of the previous day's outright reverse repurchase, the bond market opened lower in the morning. In the afternoon, the regulatory authorities cooled the equity market, and TL2603 once turned positive and closed with a doji star. The non - renewal of the outright reverse repurchase is a concern for the bond market [10]. - Since December, treasury bond futures have been under pressure to decline. Although the equity market has cooled, the impact of the equity market on the bond market is limited at present. The above - mentioned negative factors have been partially released, and it is not advisable to short at present [10]. 3.2.3. Precious Metals - In the Asian session today, Shanghai silver continued to lead the rise in the precious metals sector. The domestic silver futures and spot prices rose strongly, and the internal - external spot premium jumped to 2,700 yuan/kg, with the premium rate rising to 13.5%. The import window opened again [12][13]. - Speculative funds showed differentiation. Gold and silver were mainly added, with gold being increased for 6 consecutive days. The total positions of New York gold futures, silver futures, platinum futures, and palladium futures changed to +7,855 lots, +2,146 lots, - 631 lots, and - 35 lots respectively [12]. 3.2.4. Container Shipping Index - Shipping companies continued to lower spot freight rates to increase the end - of - month shipment volume in the spot market. If the cargo volume before the Spring Festival fails to meet expectations, the spot freight rate may reach an inflection point in mid - to - late January. However, due to the cancellation of the VAT export tax rebate for photovoltaic products from April 1, there is still an expectation of pre - shipment in the first quarter, and the freight rate may have marginal support [14]. - The instability of shipping companies' frequent changes in spot quotes increases the difficulty of unilateral investment. Spot enterprises should mainly hold hedging orders, and enterprises with shipping contracts before the Spring Festival should close their long - hedging positions on the futures side. The 04 contract should not be overly shorted in the short term, and attention can be paid to the positive arbitrage opportunity between the EC2604 and EC2608 contracts [14]. 3.3.未来24小时重点数据 - Tonight (January 14): The US November retail sales month - on - month rate (forecast: 0.4%), the US November PPI annual rate (forecast: 2.7%), and the US December existing home sales annualized total (forecast: 4.21 million) [17]. - Tomorrow (January 15): China's December M2 money supply annual rate (forecast: 8%), China's December social financing scale (forecast: 3.52685 trillion yuan), China's December new RMB loans (forecast: 1.61608 trillion yuan), the US January New York Fed manufacturing index (forecast: 1), the US initial jobless claims for the week ending January 10 (forecast: 2.15 million), and the US January SPGI manufacturing PMI preliminary value [19][20].