棉花、棉纱日报-20260114

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of cotton remain strong due to supportive market factors, and the recent sharp correction in cotton prices is expected to result in short - term oscillations with a slightly upward bias [6]. - It is recommended to consider buying on dips for Zhengzhou cotton, while maintaining a wait - and - see approach for both arbitrage and options strategies [8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Market Information - Futures Market: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts increased by 50, 50, and 15 respectively, while the CY01 contract decreased by 395. The trading volumes of most contracts decreased, and the open interest of some contracts changed. For example, the trading volume of the CF05 contract decreased by 207,513, and its open interest increased by 5,210 [2]. - Spot Market: The CCIndex3128B price increased by 113 to 15,970 yuan/ton, and the Cot A price was 75.00 cents/pound. The prices of some other spot products also had corresponding changes [2]. - Spreads: In the cotton and棉纱 markets, there were various spread changes. For instance, the 1 - 5 month spread of cotton was 40 with no change, and the 1 - 5 month spread of 棉纱 was - 1,020, a decrease of 440 [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views - Cotton Market News - In Xinjiang, the number of ginned cotton factories that ended processing increased last week, and the processing volume continued to decline. The domestic lint market price has been rising during the acquisition and processing period this year, and processing enterprises generally made profits through the "buy - and - sell" model. The average purchase price of inland seed cotton last week was 6.78 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.17 yuan/kg from the previous week. As of January 11, 1,096 cotton processing enterprises had conducted notarized inspections, with a total inspection weight of 6.784 million tons [4]. - The average temperature in the main cotton - producing areas of the US decreased, and the precipitation remained low. The drought in the main cotton - producing areas of the US is expected to intensify in the first quarter [5]. - In December 2025, Vietnam's textile and clothing imports and exports performed well, with a 47% month - on - month increase in cotton imports [5]. - Trading Logic: The cotton sales progress is fast, and the downstream stocking willingness has increased. The fundamentals of cotton remain strong, and the short - term trend is expected to be slightly upward [6]. - Trading Strategies - For the single - side strategy, it is expected that the US cotton will oscillate within a range in the short term, and it is advisable to consider buying Zhengzhou cotton on dips [8]. - For the arbitrage and options strategies, a wait - and - see approach is recommended [9][10]. - Cotton Yarn Industry News - The overall price of pure cotton yarn is stable with a slight decline. The high - count combed yarn price is firm, but the overall market trading atmosphere is still light. The prices of some yarn products are provided, such as the OEC21S at about 16,600 yuan/ton [10]. - The all - cotton grey fabric market has partial stocking. Most manufacturers believe that there will be no significant improvement this year. The prices of regular varieties are stable, and the dyeing factories plan to start their holidays at the end of January, while some weaving factories will start their holidays in mid - January [11]. Third Part: Options - Volatility: The 10 - day HV of cotton increased slightly yesterday. The implied volatilities of CF601 - C - 13400, CF601 - P - 13000, and CF601 - P - 12400 were 6.7%, 11.4%, and 17.8% respectively [13]. - Options Strategy: The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton decreased, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended for options [14][15]. Fourth Part: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the 1% tariff - based price difference between domestic and international cotton markets, cotton basis for different months, and the price difference between cotton yarn and cotton for different contracts [17][20][24][25].