玻璃日报：短期震荡-20260114

Report Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the glass industry is "short - term shock" [1] Core View - Due to the long - term losses in the glass production line, there is an expectation of further contraction in supply. However, the real estate demand has not improved, and short - term market sentiment has cooled. The short - term glass price may fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the support of the 20 - day moving average. Follow - up attention should be given to changes in macro - policies and the cold repair of production lines [3] Market行情回顾 Futures Market - The glass main contract opened high and closed low, showing a weak intraday shock. The 120 - minute Bollinger Band showed a tightening horn shape, indicating a short - term shock signal. The intraday resistance was near the 60 - day moving average of the daily line, and the support was near the 20 - day moving average. The trading volume decreased by 167,000 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest increased by 19,859 lots. The intraday high was 1,102, the low was 1,081, and the closing price was 1,096, down 23 yuan/ton or 2.06% from the previous settlement price [1] Spot Market - The transaction was okay, and some manufacturers held up prices. In North China, the shipment of manufacturers in Shahe varied, and the overall production and sales were okay. In East China, there was little change, the overall shipment slowed down, enterprises kept prices stable, and downstream enthusiasm was average. In Central China, there was still a wait - and - see sentiment in the market, the manufacturer's shipment was average, and it was mainly for rigid demand. In South China, an individual enterprise did not raise prices for individual specifications, and most of the others remained stable, with cautious procurement [1] Basis - The spot price in North China was 1,020, and the basis was - 76 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data Supply - As of January 8, the daily average output of national float glass was 150,100 tons, a decrease of 0.96% compared with the 1st. The national float glass output was 1.0592 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.32% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.9%. The industry's average start - up rate was 71.96%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08%; the average capacity utilization rate was 75.63%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.03% [2] Inventory - The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 55.518 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 1.348 million heavy boxes or 2.37%, and a year - on - year increase of 27.04%. The inventory days were 24.1 days, a decrease of 1.5 days compared with the previous period. Currently, the overall inventory of glass enterprises is in a downward trend, and there is still a downward expectation in the future [2] Demand - The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 8.6 days, a month - on - month decrease of 10.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. Engineering orders are gradually ending, and the executable days of orders are decreasing, currently concentrated in 10 - 15 days. Home - improvement orders are mainly low - value scattered orders [2] Main Logic Summary - On the supply side, long - term losses in the glass production line have accelerated the clearance of some enterprises' production capacity, and there are still plans to cold - repair some production lines before the Spring Festival, so there is an expectation of further contraction on the supply side. However, real estate development investment and capital availability have continued to decline year - on - year, with weak completion and new construction, and real estate demand has not improved. In general, short - term market sentiment has cooled and coal prices have fallen, causing the glass to weaken in the short term. But cold - repair will continue before the Spring Festival, and supply is still expected to contract further. The short - term price may fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the support of the 20 - day moving average. Follow - up attention should be given to changes in macro - policies and production line cold - repair [3]