农产品日报-20260114

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Soybean Meal: ★★★, suggesting a clear upward trend and suitable investment opportunities [1] - Soybean Oil: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and current investment value [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★, representing a clear upward trend and appropriate investment timing [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★☆☆, meaning a bullish bias but limited trading operability on the market [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish tendency but low market operability [1] - Corn: ★★★, demonstrating a clear upward trend and good investment prospects [1] - Pig: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and current investment opportunities [1] - Egg: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but limited market operability [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market trends of various agricultural products, including soybean, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, pig, and egg, and provides corresponding investment ratings and strategies [1][2][3][4][6][7][8][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - Domestic soybean prices are undergoing a correction after reaching a high, with profit - taking at the peak. Short - term policy increases grain supply, but the supply of high - protein soybeans is tight, and demand is cautious. Attention should be paid to policies and the spot market [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - After the USDA report, US soybeans are in a weak oscillation. China's soybean imports reached a record high last year. Domestic oil mills' production is increasing for peak - season demand. The probability of ENSO neutrality in Q1 is 75%, and the focus returns to US soybean exports and South American weather. If the South American weather is stable, soybean meal prices will follow the weak trend of US soybeans [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - US soybean oil is strong due to positive biodiesel expectations, although the USDA report cut its biodiesel use. Palm oil had a short - term price correction after Indonesia's B50 policy stance. The current rise is driven by demand expectations and policies, but supply factors like South American soybean harvest and Malaysian palm oil inventory should also be considered, with a range - bound view [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed products declined today as the market focuses on the impact of the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China. There are expectations of a “loosening” of China - Canada rapeseed trade policies. Coastal oil mills' Australian rapeseed is not yet processed, and inventories are falling. If China - Canada relations do not improve as expected, rapeseed prices may rebound. This week, rapeseed prices are expected to be weak [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures are in a weak oscillation, and US corn is still seeking a bottom. Policy - based grain supply is increasing, but overall inventory is low, and sellers are reluctant to sell. Downstream enterprises are starting the Spring Festival stocking. The main driving factors are unclear, and futures will be in a wide - range oscillation in the short term [7] Pig - The pig futures market is rising with increased positions, and the 03 contract hit a new high. Spot prices are stable. The strength of the macro and commodity markets is spreading to the pig market. However, due to increased supply, pig prices may hit a second bottom next year. Attention should be paid to the game between pre - Spring Festival supply and demand [8] Egg - Egg spot prices are slightly stronger, and the Hebei price is rising. The futures market is weak. Chicken - chick replenishment from August to December last year decreased by about 10% year - on - year, leading to a low number of new - laying hens in H1 2026. Egg - laying hen inventory is expected to decline in H1 2026. With pre - Spring Festival demand and supply reduction, egg prices are expected to rise. For H1 2026 contracts, a long - at - low strategy or a long - near - short - far strategy is recommended [9]