化工日报-20260114

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ [1] - Polypropylene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall market is influenced by factors such as international oil prices, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical factors. Different chemical products show different price trends and investment opportunities based on their own fundamentals [2][3][5] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures: The main contract opened high and went low, touching the 5 - day moving average. International oil prices are rising, and there is an expected reduction in olefin supply, with good downstream demand [2] - Plastic futures: The main contract closed up in a volatile manner. Cost - end support is strengthening, some spot is tight, and downstream factories replenish stocks as needed [2] - Polypropylene futures: The main contract closed up in a volatile manner. The number of maintenance devices has increased, supply has shrunk, and downstream demand is stable due to pre - holiday order - making [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene: Spot and futures prices are rising. Cost - end support is obvious due to geopolitical factors, but there is a large inventory and high resistance to destocking in the long - term [3] - Styrene: The main futures contract was sorted out narrowly. Cost - end support is strong, supply and demand are in a tight balance, and exports are improving [3] Polyester - PX and PTA: They continued to fluctuate. The short - term upward drive of PX is weak, but the medium - term outlook is positive. PTA's processing margin has moderately recovered [5] - Ethylene glycol: New domestic devices are about to be put into operation, and overseas devices are shutting down. Supply is expected to increase domestically and decrease overseas. There is pressure in the short - term, but there may be a phased improvement in the second quarter [5] - Short fiber: Enterprise inventory is low, but downstream orders are weak. Demand will continue to decline, and the price will fluctuate with raw materials [5] - Bottle chip: The operating rate has decreased, inventory has declined, and prices are firm. However, over - capacity is a long - term pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol: The futures market is strong. Overseas device operating rates are low, and port inventory is decreasing. But there are concerns about weakening demand [6] - Urea: The futures market rose strongly. Demand from compound fertilizer enterprises is increasing, and the market sentiment is positive. The market is expected to be strong in the spring [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC: It showed a strong and volatile trend. The operating rate has increased, but demand is weak. There may be arbitrage opportunities in the short - term, and the price is expected to rise in 2026 [7] - Caustic soda: It is operating weakly. The chlorine market is good, but the industry is generally in the red. There is pressure from inventory accumulation [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash: It showed a strong and volatile trend. Supply pressure is increasing, and downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rebounds [8] - Glass: It is operating weakly. Production capacity is being compressed, demand is insufficient, but there may be long - term low - buying opportunities after the decline [8]