软商品日报-20260114

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral (represented by white stars) [1] - Pulp: Neutral (represented by white stars) [1] - Sugar: Bullish (represented by three stars) [1] - Apple: Bullish (represented by three stars) [1] - Timber: Neutral (represented by white stars) [1] - 20 - rubber: Neutral (represented by white stars) [1] - Natural rubber: Neutral (represented by white stars) [1] - Butadiene rubber: Bullish (represented by three stars) [1] 2. Core Views - The report analyzes multiple soft commodities, including cotton, pulp, sugar, apple, timber, 20 - rubber, natural rubber, and butadiene rubber. It provides market conditions, supply - demand situations, and inventory data for each commodity and suggests a temporary wait - and - see approach for investment operations [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton slightly increased, and the spot trading of cotton was average with a decrease in low - basis spot. As of the end of December, the national commercial inventory of cotton was 5.7847 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.11011 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.00996 million tons. As of January 8th, the cumulative processed lint cotton was 6.969 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 0.0633 million tons. The policy of reducing the planting area in Xinjiang has been implemented, but the actual reduction is still uncertain. Spinning mills' demand for raw materials remains resilient, but downstream orders are average. Zhengzhou cotton may continue to adjust, and it is advisable to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In the international market, the production data in the first half of December in the central - southern region of Brazil was neutral. The current crushing season is coming to an end, with a seasonal decline in sugarcane crushing volume and sugar production. The market's focus has shifted to the production forecast of the next season. Meteorological models show that the rainfall in the main Brazilian producing areas in the first quarter may be lower than the historical average. The sugar - alcohol ratio has significantly adjusted, and the sugar - making ratio in the 26/27 season is expected to decline, resulting in a decrease in Brazil's sugar production. In the domestic market, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. The sales data was on the positive side, but the significant decline in sales was due to strong bearish sentiment in the market. Although there is a strong expectation of increased production in Guangxi in the 25/26 season, the production progress has been slow. If the production does not increase later, the futures price will rise. It is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price continued to rise. In Gansu, the purchasing enthusiasm of merchants was high, and the trading was good. In Shaanxi, the mainstream price remained stable. With the start of the Spring Festival stocking, merchants mainly packed their own supplies for the market, and the purchase of farmers' apples was less. Some merchants were looking for high - quality apples, but such supplies were scarce, and the trading volume was average. As of January 8th, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 6.7337 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.03%. The national cold - storage apple destocking volume was 0.2873 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.37%. The market trading logic has shifted to demand. The quality of apples this year is poor, but the purchase price is high, and the hoarding sentiment of traders and farmers is strong, which may affect the destocking speed. It is advisable to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - The futures prices of natural rubber RU, 20 - rubber NR, and butadiene rubber BR all increased, and the domestic spot prices of natural rubber and synthetic rubber also rose. The global natural rubber supply has entered the production - reducing period, with the Chinese producing areas fully stopped and the Vietnamese producing areas gradually stopping production. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants increased, while the plants of Maoming Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical continued to be shut down for maintenance, and the operating rate of upstream butadiene plants continued to rise. In December 2025, China's automobile production and sales decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month, with passenger cars being weak and commercial vehicles being strong. Last week, the domestic tire operating rate continued to decline. The finished - product inventory of Shandong tire enterprises decreased for all - steel tires and continued to rise for semi - steel tires. This week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased to 0.5682 million tons, and the social inventory of Chinese cis - butadiene rubber increased to 15,100 tons last week, while the upstream Chinese butadiene port inventory decreased to 41,300 tons. In December 2025, China's import volume of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) was about 0.9532 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.5% and a month - on - month increase of 20.6%. China's automobile export volume was 994,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 73.2% and a month - on - month increase of 21.4%, while the import volume was 30,000 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 56.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 30.4%. Overall, demand is slowly recovering, natural rubber supply is decreasing, synthetic rubber supply is increasing, rubber inventory is increasing, cost support is strong, the government has reduced leverage, and market sentiment is unstable. It is recommended to wait and see [6] Pulp - Pulp futures generally remained stable. Due to weak downstream demand, the short - term upward potential of pulp is limited. The spot price of softwood pulp is 5,500 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian softwood pulp in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai is 5,350 yuan/ton; the price of hardwood pulp "Golden Fish" is 4,730 yuan/ton. As of January 8, 2026, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.007 million tons, a cumulative increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a month - on - month increase of 0.5%, with inventory accumulating for two consecutive weeks. The narrowing price difference between softwood and hardwood pulp provides some support for softwood pulp, and the overseas offers for both softwood and hardwood pulp have been raised recently. Paper mills purchase pulp mainly for rigid demand, and the increase in the price of base paper is relatively weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the price increase of downstream base paper. It is advisable to wait and see [7] Timber - The futures price fluctuated, and the mainstream spot price remained stable. The overseas offer has been lowered, and the domestic spot price remains weak, with a short - term decrease in the arrival volume. As of January 9th, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 national ports was 57,500 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 1.77%. Demand has decreased in the off - season but is still relatively high on a week - on - week basis. As of January 9th, the total log inventory at national ports was 2.69 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 0.75%. The total national log inventory is relatively low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. Low inventory provides some support for the price. It is advisable to wait and see [8]