铁矿日报：发运逐步减量，到港高位逐步往下游转移-20260114

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided on the report's industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market is expected to remain volatile in the short - term. The supply side shows a decline in new shipments, the demand side is slightly recovering, the port inventory is still increasing but gradually transferring to downstream steel mills, and the futures contract's back structure and positive basis provide strong support below [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory Market行情态势回顾 - The main futures contract of iron ore continued to fluctuate in a narrow range, closing at 821 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan/ton or 0.18% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 238,000 lots, the open interest was 663,000 lots, and the settled funds were 11.969 billion yuan. Pay attention to the test near the previous high of 840 [1] - The spot prices of mainstream port varieties changed little, and the swap price also had minor fluctuations. The PB powder in Qingdao Port was 828 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the Super Special powder was 704 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the main swap was 108.00 (-0.18) US dollars/ton [1] - The basis of Qingdao Port PB powder was 42.9 yuan/ton with little change. The iron ore 2 - 5 spread was 16.5 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 22 yuan. The iron ore futures contract showed a back structure and positive basis, with limited downside space and short - term continuation of the shock [1] Fundamental Analysis - Overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, especially in Brazil. The arrivals increased month - on - month. The previous high shipments are expected to support the high - level operation of arrivals. There are expectations of supply disturbances [2] - On the demand side, there are both blast furnace inspections and resumptions. The previously resumed blast furnaces have returned to full production, and the molten iron increased significantly month - on - month. The steel mill profitability weakened slightly. The daily consumption increased, the replenishment demand increased, but the inventory accumulation speed of steel mills was slow [2] - In terms of inventory, the port continued to accumulate a large amount of inventory, the pressure - port inventory increased, the inventory pressure was still accumulating. The steel mill inventory increased to some extent but was still significantly lower than the historical average. The release of replenishment demand was still slow [2] Macro - level Analysis - Overseas: A series of data released by the US this week showed that the fundamentals continued to cool down. The overall overseas macro - driving logic has not changed significantly, including factors such as non - farm payrolls, ADP employment, job vacancies, and ISM PMIs. The criminal investigation of Fed Chairman Powell on January 12 increased investors' concerns about the weakening of the Fed's independence [3] - Domestic: Since the beginning of the year, the overall domestic macro - environment may continue to improve mildly, with the focus on the investment side. Although the current fundamentals are still in the off - season and at a weak level, the incremental policies issued since the fourth quarter have entered the key period of implementation. The incremental policy statements and the early - approved projects in January are also expected to follow up, and the PMI and price data in December have improved mildly. Pay attention to the high - frequency physical work volume in January and the progress and continuity of policy implementation [3]