原油日报：原油高开后震荡运行-20260114

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report anticipates that crude oil prices will fluctuate. Despite the EIA data showing an unexpected decline in US crude oil inventories, the increase in refined oil inventories exceeded expectations, leading to an overall rise in oil product inventories. The market remains concerned about crude oil demand due to the sluggish crack spreads of refined oil products in Europe and the US, a slight drop in the US ISM manufacturing index in December 2025, and continuous contraction for 10 months. The global crude oil market is in an oversupply situation, with high floating storage and increased exports from the Middle East. Geopolitical factors such as the escalating situation in Iran, the lack of progress in Russia-Ukraine negotiations, and potential US sanctions also add uncertainty to the market. [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 4, OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November 2025 and suspend production increases in February and March 2026. The next meeting is scheduled for February 1. [1] - Trump warned that if India does not limit its purchases of Russian oil as required by the US, the US may further increase tariffs on Indian products. Reliance Industries stated that its Jamnagar refinery has not received any Russian oil in the past three weeks and does not expect any Russian crude oil deliveries in January. [1] - The crack spreads of refined oil products in Europe and the US are low. The US ISM manufacturing index in December 2025 decreased slightly and has been below 50 for 10 consecutive months, causing market concerns about crude oil demand. [1] - Exports from the Middle East have increased, and global crude oil floating storage is high, indicating an oversupply in the crude oil market. [1] - Trump said that Venezuela will transfer 30 - 50 million barrels of oil to the US, and Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil. The US Energy Secretary declared that the US will "indefinitely" control Venezuelan oil sales. [1] - The situation in Iran is escalating, with ongoing riots, internet disruptions, and Trump threatening to interfere. The US State Department has asked US citizens to leave Iran immediately. Trump also announced a 25% tariff on any country conducting business with Iran in their commercial activities with the US and canceled all meetings with Iranian officials. [1] - There is no further progress in Russia-Ukraine negotiations, and Trump has passed a sanctions bill against Russia, authorizing tariffs on countries importing Russian oil. [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Today, the main crude oil futures contract, 2602, rose 1.78% to 445.5 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 442.9 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 454.0 yuan/ton, and an open interest decrease of 2589 to 19989 lots. [2] Fundamental Tracking - The IEA monthly report raised the 2026 WTI crude oil price forecast by $0.79/barrel to $52.21/barrel, lowered the 2026 global oil demand forecast from 105.2 million barrels per day to 104.8 million barrels per day, and increased the 2026 global oil production forecast from 107.4 million barrels per day to 107.7 million barrels per day. [3] - On January 7, EIA data showed that US crude oil inventories for the week ending January 2 decreased by 3.832 million barrels, against an expected increase of 0.447 million barrels, and were 4.08% lower than the five - year average. Gasoline inventories increased by 7.702 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 3.186 million barrels, and refined oil inventories increased by 5.594 million barrels, surpassing the expected increase of 2.109 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 0.728 million barrels. [3] - The OPEC monthly report showed that OPEC's October crude oil production was revised down by 21,000 barrels per day to 28.481 million barrels per day, and its November 2025 production decreased by 1000 barrels per day month - on - month to 28.480 million barrels per day, mainly due to production cuts in Iraq and Iran. OPEC+ November crude oil production increased by 43,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 43.06 million barrels per day. [3] - US crude oil production for the week ending January 2 decreased by 16,000 barrels per day to 13.811 million barrels per day and remained near the historical high. [3] Demand Data - According to the US Energy Administration, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products decreased to 19.871 million barrels per day, a 1.68% decrease from the same period last year, shifting from being higher than the same period last year to being lower. [4] - The weekly gasoline demand decreased by 4.59% to 8.17 million barrels per day, with a four - week average demand of 8.688 million barrels per day, a 0.49% increase from the same period last year. [4] - The weekly diesel demand decreased by 5.45% to 3.195 million barrels per day, with a four - week average demand of 3.629 million barrels per day, a 4.25% decrease from the same period last year. The decline in both gasoline and diesel demand led to a 0.77% decrease in the single - week supply of US crude oil products. [4]