PVC日报：震荡运行-20260114

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The PVC market is expected to show a strong and volatile trend in the 03 - 05 contracts under the stimulation of the cancellation of export tax rebates, despite the current high inventory and weak downstream demand [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the northwest region of the upstream remains stable. The PVC operating rate has increased by 1.04 percentage points to 79.67%, continuing to rise and at a neutral level in recent years. The downstream operating rate has increased slightly but is still lower than before New Year's Day, with poor orders for downstream products. Export orders decreased last week, and the Indian market has low prices and limited demand. However, there may be a rush to export before April 1, 2026, when the export tax rebate for domestic PVC will be cancelled. Social inventory continues to increase, and the inventory pressure is still large. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and although the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities has rebounded, it is still at the lowest level in recent years. The macro - environment is warm, which boosts the sentiment of the commodity market, but the comprehensive gross profit of chlor - alkali is under pressure [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The PVC2605 contract decreased in position and fluctuated. The lowest price was 4,854 yuan/ton, the highest was 4,935 yuan/ton, and it closed at 4,878 yuan/ton, down 0.25% and above the 20 - day moving average. The position decreased by 6,529 lots to 1,028,094 lots [2]. Basis - On January 14, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in the East China region remained at 4,605 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 4,878 yuan/ton. The current basis was - 273 yuan/ton, strengthening by 10 yuan/ton and at a relatively low level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply Side: Affected by plants such as Shaanxi Jintai and Ningbo Hanwha, the PVC operating rate increased by 1.04 percentage points to 79.67%. New production capacities of several companies have been put into production or are in trial production [4]. - Demand Side: The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, with significant year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas. The year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, new construction, construction, and completion have further decreased. As of the week of January 11, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 48.65% week - on - week and was at the lowest level in recent years [5]. - Inventory: As of the week of January 8, the PVC social inventory increased by 3.48% week - on - week to 1.1141 million tons, 40.98% higher than the same period last year, and the social inventory continued to increase and remained at a high level [6].