尿素日报：库存继续去化，盘面偏强-20260114

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Urea futures opened low and closed high, with an intraday increase of over 2%. The market is strong in the short - term, but the strength is expected to be unsustainable, and it will undergo high - level adjustments in the short term due to poor demand follow - up [1] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - Urea futures opened low and closed high, rising over 2% intraday. Factory orders improved, and some factories stopped selling after being fully subscribed. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly in the range of 1680 - 1720 yuan/ton. Gas - based plants are still reducing production, but the increasing proportion of coal - based plants offsets some of the winter production restrictions. Daily urea production has reached 200,000 tons since the resumption of work after New Year's Day. Agricultural dealers' fertilizer - stocking enthusiasm has increased, and industrial demand is expected to decline due to the approaching Spring Festival. The current inventory has decreased to below 1 million tons, a 3.53% decrease from the previous period [1] 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The main urea 2605 contract opened at 1775 yuan/ton, rising over 2% intraday and closing at 1814 yuan/ton, with a change of 2.02%. The trading volume was 253,756 lots (+23,507 lots). Among the top 20 positions, long positions increased by 17,796 lots and short positions increased by 17,537 lots [2] - Spot: The futures market is strong, factory orders have improved, and some factories have stopped selling after being fully subscribed. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly in the range of 1680 - 1720 yuan/ton [4] 3. Warehouse Receipts - On January 14, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 13,355, unchanged from the previous trading day [3] 4. Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The mainstream spot market quotation is stable, and the futures closing price has increased. Based on the Henan region, the basis has weakened compared to the previous trading day, with the May contract basis at - 64 yuan/ton (- 30 yuan/ton) [7] - Supply: On January 14, 2026, the national daily urea production was 199,100 tons, a decrease of 3,700 tons from the previous day, with an operating rate of 82.05% [9] - Enterprise Inventory: As of January 14, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 986,100 tons, a decrease of 36,100 tons from the previous week, a 3.53% decrease. The pre - sale order days were 6.06 days, a decrease of 0.35 days from the previous period, a 5.46% decrease [11]