PP日报：震荡上行-20260114

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - PP is expected to have limited upward space due to limited improvement in the supply - demand pattern and shortened downstream order cycles, despite the warm macro - atmosphere [1] - The L - PP spread is expected to decline as there is new capacity of plastics put into production recently, with a higher开工率 than PP, and the peak season of agricultural films is gradually ending [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - As of the week of January 9th, after the New Year's Day holiday, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 0.10 percentage points to 52.6% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, dropped by 0.22 percentage points to 42.92% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - On January 14th, there were few changes in maintenance devices. The operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 81%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring decreased to around 25% [1][4] - The inventory accumulation during this New Year's Day was not significant, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period of recent years [1][4] - Due to the continuous escalation of riots in Iran, Trump threatening to interfere again, no further progress in Russia - Ukraine negotiations, Trump passing a sanctions bill on Russia authorizing tariffs on countries importing Russian oil, the crude oil price rebounded slightly [1] - In terms of supply, the new 400,000 - ton/year capacity of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into production in mid - October, and the number of recent maintenance devices has slightly decreased. The downstream is at the end of the peak season, orders for plastic weaving continue to decline, the price of BOPP film has dropped again, and there are limited new downstream orders approaching the Spring Festival holiday [1] - The manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index in December all rose to the expansion range, and the Ministry of Finance has pre - issued the quotas for trade - in and "two important" projects in 2026, creating a warm macro - atmosphere that boosts market sentiment [1] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1. Futures - The PP2605 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 6545 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6607 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6590 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, up 0.76%. The position volume decreased by 9082 lots to 484356 lots [2] 3.2.2. Spot - The spot prices of PP in most regions increased. The drawstring was reported at 6180 - 6680 yuan/ton [3] 3.3. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On January 14th, there were few changes in maintenance devices. The operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 81%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring decreased to around 25% [4] - Demand: As of the week of January 9th, after the New Year's Day holiday, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 0.10 percentage points to 52.6% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, dropped by 0.22 percentage points to 42.92% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - Inventory: The petrochemical early - morning inventory on Wednesday decreased by 30,000 tons to 560,000 tons week - on - week, the same as the same period last year. The inventory accumulation during this New Year's Day was not significant, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period of recent years [4] 3.4. Raw Material End - The Brent crude oil 03 contract rose to $65 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $750 per ton week - on - week [6]