塑料日报：震荡上行-20260114

Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The plastic market is expected to have limited upside in the near term due to limited improvement in the supply - demand pattern, despite a warm macro - atmosphere [1] - The L - PP spread is expected to decline as there are new plastic production capacities coming on stream, the plastic operating rate is higher than that of PP, and the peak season for agricultural films is gradually ending [1] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - On January 14th, the restart of maintenance devices such as Fujian United's full - density line 2 increased the plastic operating rate to around 86%, which is at a neutral level [1][4] - As of the week of January 9th, after the New Year's Day holiday, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.06 percentage points to 41.21% on a month - on - month basis. Agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, with orders continuing to decline and raw material inventory also decreasing. Packaging film orders increased slightly, but the overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4] - The inventory build - up during New Year's Day this year was not significant, and the petrochemical inventory is currently at a neutral level in recent years [1][4] - Due to the ongoing escalation of riots in Iran, Trump's threat to interfere, the lack of progress in Russia - Ukraine negotiations, and the passage of a sanctions bill against Russia, the crude oil price rebounded slightly [1] - New production capacities of 500,000 tons/year of ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE, 700,000 tons/year of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical, and 500,000 tons/year of BASF (Guangdong) have been put into production recently [1] - As the temperature drops, terminal construction slows down, and demand in the north decreases. The production of northern greenhouse films has basically stopped, and the price of agricultural films has stabilized after a decline. Some industries are entering the off - season, and the downstream operating rate is expected to decline. Pre - holiday stocking is limited due to the approaching Spring Festival [1] - In December, China's manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and composite PMI output index all rose to the expansion range. The Ministry of Finance has pre - allocated the quotas for trade - in and "two important" projects in 2026, creating a warm macro - atmosphere that boosts market sentiment [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The plastic 2605 contract reduced positions and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 6,786 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,866 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 6,820 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 1.26%. The position decreased by 10,862 lots to 466,526 lots [2] - Most of the PE spot market prices rose, with price changes ranging from - 0 to + 150 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,720 - 6,920 yuan/ton, LDPE at 9,100 - 9,360 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,870 - 8,440 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - The plastic operating rate rose to around 86% due to the restart of maintenance devices, which is at a neutral level [4] - The downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.06 percentage points to 41.21% on a month - on - month basis. Agricultural film orders continued to decline and were at a neutral level in recent years, while packaging film orders increased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate of PE was still at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - The petrochemical early inventory on Wednesday decreased by 30,000 tons to 560,000 tons compared to the previous day, which is the same as the same period last year [4] - The Brent crude oil 03 contract rose to $65/barrel, and the ethylene prices in Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia remained flat at $725/ton and $745/ton respectively [4]