有色金属日报-20260114

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★★☆ (Trend of rising, with clear upward trend and ongoing market development) [1] - Aluminum: ★★☆ (Trend of rising, with clear upward trend and ongoing market development) [1] - Alumina: ★★☆ (Trend of rising, with clear upward trend and ongoing market development) [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ (Bullish bias, with upward driving force but limited operability on the market) [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★★☆ (Trend of rising, with clear upward trend and ongoing market development) [1] - Tin: ★★☆ (Trend of rising, with clear upward trend and ongoing market development) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★☆ (Trend of rising, with clear upward trend and ongoing market development) [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★☆ (Trend of rising, with clear upward trend and ongoing market development) [1] - Polysilicon: ★☆☆ (Bullish bias, with upward driving force but limited operability on the market) [1] Core Views - The overall market of non - ferrous metals shows complex trends, with different metals affected by various factors such as geopolitics, supply and demand, and cost [1][2][3] Summary by Metal Categories Copper - Wednesday saw Shanghai copper increase positions and fluctuate at a high level, with the market competing around 105,000 yuan. SMM spot copper was at 103,915 yuan. Futures warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 27,000 tons to 149,300 tons. Attention is on the impact of the Iran geopolitical situation on precious metals trading sentiment [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum rose and then fell again. Spot premiums and discounts in East China, Central China, and Foshan were - 80 yuan, - 240 yuan, and 60 yuan respectively. The processing fee of aluminum rods widened to - 200 yuan. Short - term bullish sentiment in precious and non - ferrous metals is still strong. The fundamentals deviate to some extent, and speculation should be cautious. Aluminum smelters can consider selling for hedging. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum, with low market activity. The domestic alumina operating capacity remains around 95 million tons, in a state of significant surplus. The average cash cost in Shanxi and Henan has dropped to around 2,600 yuan. The spot price of alumina is under pressure, and short - selling can be considered when the basis is low [2] Zinc - Funds continue to flow into the zinc market, and the capital congestion degree further increases. The high price has an obvious negative feedback on the consumer side, and the divergence between bulls and bears increases. The zinc price has recovered all the declines in 2025, and the callback pressure is gradually increasing. Short positions can be considered above 24,800 yuan/ton, and the support at 23,000 yuan/ton should be watched during the callback [3] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel declined, and the market trading was active. The inventory of pure nickel increased by 2,000 tons to 59,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased by 18,000 tons to 855,000 tons. The short - term market is dominated by policy sentiment, and downstream buyers can buy at low prices [6] Tin - The main contract of Shanghai tin hit the daily limit for the second time this week. The spot tin price adjusted to 485,500 yuan, and the warehouse receipts increased by 862 tons to 7,107 tons. High prices suppress demand, while supply remains stable. Short - term attention should be paid to the silver market rhythm, and holding short - call options until expiration can be considered [7] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate dived and then rebounded during the session. The sales strategy of upstream brine plants is changing. The overall demand maintains strong resilience. The market inventory increased for the first week, but the downstream inventory decreased rapidly. The lithium carbonate futures price is strong, but short - term uncertainty is extremely high [8] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon maintains a volatile trend, with weak supply and demand fundamentals. The overall spot price of industrial silicon is stalemate, and the futures price follows the volatile trend [9] Polysilicon - Polysilicon decreased positions and fluctuated. The price of polysilicon M - type re - feed material is 51,000 - 58,500 yuan/ton. The trading logic of polysilicon has changed, and the market sentiment has significantly cooled down. Participation should be cautious [10]