软商品日报：震荡为主-20260114

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. Group 2: Core Views - The cotton market is expected to remain in a short - term oscillatory adjustment with limited downside space, and attention should be paid to the support near the 20 - day line [1]. - The sugar market has a large supply pressure in the near - term, with weak short - term upward momentum. However, the double - festival stocking may boost demand, and it may be possible to buy on dips [2]. Group 3: Summary by Commodity Cotton - On January 13, 2026, the Xinjiang cotton price index of 3128B grade was 15,605 yuan/ton, up 113 yuan/ton from the previous day; 3129B grade was 15,715 yuan/ton, up 146 yuan/ton; double 28 grade was 15,659 yuan/ton, up 151 yuan/ton; double 29 grade was 15,763 yuan/ton, up 167 yuan/ton [1]. - The Zhengzhou cotton main contract rebounded significantly, with the highest reaching 14,890 yuan/ton, and the basis quotation in Xinjiang strengthened. Spinning enterprises mainly made purchases through point - price transactions, and the spot transaction price of double 29 in Xinjiang was between 15,600 - 15,800 yuan/ton [1]. - The USDA report on cotton is slightly bullish, but the price increase space is restricted due to the ineffective transmission of upstream price increases downstream [1]. Sugar - In the first half of December, in the central - southern region of Brazil, the sugarcane crushing volume was 5.92 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.894 million tons or 32.83%; the ATR of sugarcane was 143.02 kg/ton, an increase of 26.07 kg/ton compared to the same period last year; the sugar - making ratio was 31.47%, a decrease of 4.81% compared to the same period last year; ethanol production was 740 million liters, a year - on - year decrease of 22 million liters or 2.89%; sugar production was 254,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 102,000 tons or 28.76% [2]. - The basis repair between sugar futures and spot has been basically completed, and the valuation of far - month contracts has also been somewhat repaired. The near - month still has a large supply pressure, and the short - term upward momentum is weak. The large price difference between domestic and foreign markets may attract more imports, but the double - festival stocking may boost demand [2].