每日核心期货品种分析-20260114

Report Overview - Report Title: Daily Core Futures Variety Analysis - Release Date: January 14, 2026 1. Market Performance Summary 1.1 Futures Market Overview - As of the close on January 14, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed results. Shanghai Tin rose 8%, Shanghai Silver rose over 8%, Fuel Oil rose over 6%, and Platinum rose over 3%. Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil (LU) and Pure Benzene rose over 2%. In terms of declines, Lithium Carbonate fell over 3%, Caustic Soda fell over 2%, and Glass, Polysilicon, Coking Coal, and Rapeseed Meal fell over 1% [6]. - Among stock index futures, the CSI 300 Index Futures (IF) main contract fell 0.29%, the SSE 50 Index Futures (IH) main contract fell 0.62%, the CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) main contract rose 0.94%, and the CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) main contract rose 0.09%. Among treasury bond futures, the 2-year Treasury Bond Futures (TS) main contract remained flat, the 5-year Treasury Bond Futures (TF) main contract rose 0.03%, the 10-year Treasury Bond Futures (T) main contract rose 0.08%, and the 30-year Treasury Bond Futures (TL) main contract fell 0.04% [7]. 1.2 Capital Flow - As of 15:18 on January 14, in terms of capital inflows into domestic futures main contracts, Shanghai Silver 2604 had an inflow of 4.395 billion yuan, CSI 2603 had an inflow of 4.248 billion yuan, and Shanghai and Shenzhen 2603 had an inflow of 3.545 billion yuan. In terms of outflows, Lithium Carbonate 2605 had an outflow of 785 million yuan, Shanghai Gold 2602 had an outflow of 578 million yuan, and Alumina 2605 had an outflow of 316 million yuan [7]. 2. Market Analysis of Key Varieties 2.1 Shanghai Copper - Shanghai Copper opened high and moved higher, rising during the day. The US inflation data in December increased market expectations of an interest rate cut in April. In terms of supply, copper smelters are facing profit challenges, and refined copper production is expected to decline in January. The merger negotiation between Rio Tinto and Glencore may tighten the copper supply. In terms of demand, terminal demand is growing strongly, but the copper product sector is cautious, and copper inventories have increased significantly. The market is worried about the US refining copper tariff, which supports the copper price [9]. 2.2 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium Carbonate opened high and then declined during the day. In December 2025, production increased, and inventory started to accumulate. The demand for energy storage batteries remains strong, but the export tax rebate policy adjustment and the exchange's trading policy adjustment have affected the market. Despite the downward movement in the short term, the overall sentiment is still bullish, with the risk of CATL resuming production [11]. 2.3 Crude Oil - OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan in February and March 2026. The US crude oil inventory decreased more than expected, but the refined oil inventory increased. The market is still worried about demand, and the global crude oil market is in a state of oversupply. The situation in Iran and Venezuela may affect the supply, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate [12][13]. 2.4 Asphalt - The asphalt production rate decreased last week, and the expected production in January 2026 also decreased. The downstream demand is weak in the north and average in the south. The situation in Venezuela may affect the raw material supply and production cost of domestic asphalt. It is recommended to focus on the raw material shortage of domestic refineries and consider reverse arbitrage [14][16]. 2.5 PP - The downstream start - up rate of PP is at a low level, and the enterprise start - up rate is at a medium - low level. The cost is affected by the international situation, and the supply is increasing with new capacity. The downstream is in the off - season, and the demand is weak. The upward space of PP is expected to be limited, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [17]. 2.6 Plastic - The plastic start - up rate has increased, and the downstream start - up rate is at a low level. The cost is affected by the international situation, and new capacity has been put into production. The downstream demand is weakening, and the upward space is limited. The L - PP spread is expected to narrow [18][19]. 2.7 PVC - The PVC start - up rate is increasing, but the downstream demand is weak, and the export is average. The social inventory is high, and the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. With the cancellation of export tax rebates, the 03 - 05 contracts are expected to fluctuate strongly [20]. 2.8 Coking Coal - Coking Coal opened low and then adjusted downward nearly 2% during the day. The supply of imported coal decreased, while domestic production increased. Coking enterprises and steel mills are replenishing inventory. Despite the short - term adjustment, Coking Coal is expected to remain strong in the long term [22]. 2.9 Urea - Urea opened low and rose over 2% during the day. The daily production has increased, and the inventory has decreased. The agricultural demand is increasing, but the industrial demand is weakening due to the approaching Spring Festival. The short - term strength of urea is expected to be difficult to sustain, and it will be adjusted at a high level [23].