热卷日报：震荡整理-20260114

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The current production pressure of hot-rolled coils is not significant. The anti-involution policy still has expectations, providing strong support at the bottom. Although the weekly apparent consumption has slightly declined, it remains strong year-on-year. It is normal for the demand to decline slightly in the off-season. The warming up of winter storage sentiment may drive a wave of demand. The total inventory is relatively high, exerting some pressure. The hot-rolled coil futures have briefly fallen below the 5-day moving average, and attention should be paid to the support near the 10-day and 20-day moving averages. It is recommended to adopt a cautiously bullish approach and consider buying on dips. However, note that the oscillation range has not been completely broken yet [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures prices: On Wednesday, the open interest of the main hot-rolled coil futures contract increased by 8,625 lots, with a trading volume of 309,018 lots, showing a decline compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,297 yuan, and the high was 3,316 yuan. It showed an intraday increase in open interest and oscillated. In terms of the daily moving average, it briefly fell below the 5-day moving average but remained above the 10-day and 20-day moving averages, closing at 3,306 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.09% [1]. - Spot prices: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,290 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2]. - Basis: The futures-spot basis was -16 yuan, with the futures slightly at a premium to the spot [3]. Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 8, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased by 10,000 tons to 3.0551 million tons compared to the previous week. It was 16,200 tons higher year-on-year. The output has rebounded for three consecutive weeks, mainly due to the improvement in steel mill profitability, increased production enthusiasm, the transfer of some steel mill hot metal from building materials to plates, and the intensified resumption of production after the end of the annual maintenance of steel mills, driving the supply to recover. The subsequent recovery strength needs to be observed [4]. - Demand: As of January 8, the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 24,300 tons to 3.0834 million tons compared to the previous week. The apparent demand slightly declined, but it was 72,500 tons higher year-on-year, indicating that the demand still has resilience [4]. - Inventory: As of January 8, the total inventory decreased by 28,300 tons to 3.6813 million tons compared to the previous week (the social inventory increased by 21,700 tons, and the steel mill inventory decreased by 50,000 tons, resulting in a total inventory decrease of 28,300 tons). The total inventory continued to be destocked, but the destocking amplitude narrowed. The total inventory is at a high level in the past five years, and the inventory still exerts a suppressing effect on prices [4]. - Policy: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products have been introduced. In the short term, it will lead to fluctuations in exports, an increase in supply, and price pressure. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December proposed an active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. Deeply rectifying involution-style competition was listed as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [4]. Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: A decline in supply-side production, the expectation of the start of winter storage demand, the rush to export, policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and the strength of iron ore as a furnace charge [5]. - Bearish factors: The resumption of production by steel mills in January exceeded expectations, the seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and the suppression of prices by inventory accumulation [5].