甲醇日报：静待库存拐点-20260114

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol futures market maintains a slight oscillation, with support at the 60 - day moving average. There's a high possibility of a inventory inflection point in Q1 2026, and investors can focus on buying opportunities after price dips. Currently, methanol is undervalued. Although the overall rebound is limited by weak downstream demand, it is likely to rebound from low levels. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in Iran [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - As of January 14, 2026, the total methanol port inventory in China was 1.4403 million tons, a decrease of 9,690 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China decreased by 84,400 tons, and that in South China decreased by 12,500 tons. The significant reduction in port inventory was due to a small total unloading volume. The visible unloading of foreign vessels was 96,100 tons, and the non - visible unloading was 125,000 tons. In South China, the inventory in Guangdong decreased, while that in Fujian remained stable [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - The Ministry of Finance announced an adjustment to the export tax - rebate policy for products such as photovoltaic products. Starting from April 1, 2026, the VAT export tax - rebate for products including methanol will be cancelled [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - The futures market shows a slight oscillation, and the 60 - day moving average on the daily chart provides support. There's a high chance of an inventory inflection point in the first quarter. Investors can consider buying after price drops. Methanol is undervalued, and its rebound is restricted by weak downstream demand, but it may rebound from low levels. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in Iran [3][4]