中国进出口系列七：12月贸易延续反弹，艺术品进口再次增加

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report Total Volume - Trade continued its periodic rebound. As of January 14, the global export heat value of Huatai was +0.68, up 0.54 from the revised November figure; the import heat value was +0.09, up 0.17 from the revised November figure. The economies that had released December import and export reports showed a slight slowdown in the month - on - month improvement, but trade continued to recover in December after the improvement in November. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December and implemented the RMP balance sheet expansion policy. The global economy continued to show signs of improvement at the end of 2025, but there was a risk of continued pressure on periodic trade during the economic cycle transition. [2][10] - The tone was optimistic. After the leaders of China and the US met in South Korea at the end of October and reached measures such as suspending additional tariffs, market risk appetite improved. In the long run, the "Big Beautiful Act" in the US in July opened the debt shackles restricting the US economic expansion, and the direction of macro - asset allocation expansion was certain [2][19]. Structure - Electric vehicles maintained their advantage, and attention should be paid to the increase in art imports and the decline in machine tool exports [3]. - By industry (as of November): China's import demand for transport equipment, waste resources, and non - metal minerals increased, while the short - term import demand for ferrous metals, chemical fibers, and coal continued to slow. The global economy's import demand for China's transport equipment, non - ferrous metals, and equipment increased, but the demand for non - metal minerals, wood products, and oil and gas decreased significantly [3]. - By commodity: As of November, China's imports of weapons continued to decline, while it increased art imports and precious metal exports. As of December, the export growth of China's machine tools slowed significantly, but automobiles still maintained a trade advantage. China's import demand for aluminum remained high, and the growth rate of rare earth imports remained low. The export demand for Chinese goods remained relatively strong, with rapid growth in the exports of cement, fertilizers, and electric vehicles, but a slowdown in machine tools and coal [3]. - By country: As of December, China's top 5 foreign trade partners were ASEAN (16.37%), the EU (13.12%), the US (8.14%), Hong Kong, China (6.25%), and South Korea (5.25%). In December, China maintained high trade growth rates with Hong Kong, China (25.66%), Vietnam (16.77%), and Indonesia (14.79%), and low trade growth rates with the US (- 25.97%), Malaysia (- 19.89%), and Canada (- 6.55%) [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Global Trade in December - Huatai Futures measured the current global trade cycle by tracking the import and export cycles of major global economies. In 2025, China's foreign trade volume was 45.47 trillion yuan, a 3.8% increase. Exports were 26.99 trillion yuan (up 6.1%), and imports were 18.48 trillion yuan (up 0.5%). As of January 14, the global export heat value of Huatai was +0.68, up 0.54 from the revised November figure; the import heat value was +0.09, up 0.17 from the revised November figure. The economies that had released December import and export reports showed a slight slowdown in the month - on - month improvement, but trade continued to recover in December [10]. China's Trade in December - China's trade continued to recover. The relatively loose Fed monetary policy and the easing of China - US relations improved trade. The tone was optimistic due to the China - US leaders' meeting and the "Big Beautiful Act" in the US. However, the expansion rhythm was highly uncertain, as the current easing state might be interrupted at any time, and the Sino - Japanese trade conflict and US military actions in South America and the Middle East increased trade flow instability. The economies of China and the US improved month - on - month. In December, the US non - farm employment remained positive, and the unemployment rate dropped slightly to 4.4%. China's manufacturing PMI rebounded 0.9 percentage points to 50.1 in December, and new export orders also continued to rebound [19]. Import Industries - Manufacturing import growth rebounded. As of November 2025, the import value index expanded in 24 industries, including manufacturing (102.2). Among them, the railway, ship, aerospace, and other transport equipment manufacturing industries had relatively large rebounds [28]. - Transport equipment imports increased. As of November, the import demand of 12 industries, such as railway, ship, aerospace, and other transport equipment manufacturing, increased. China reduced its import demand for coal and chemical products, with 5 industries, including ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, showing a decline [29][32]. Export Industries - China's manufacturing exports rebounded. As of November 2025, the export value of manufacturing (105.9) expanded, while the electricity, heat, gas, and water supply industries (99.3) and mining (66.7) continued to contract. Among the 24 industries with expanding export value, 9 industries, such as railway, ship, aerospace, and other transport equipment manufacturing, had relatively large increases [36][37]. - China's transport equipment exports were strong. As of November, 4 industries, such as railway, ship, aerospace, and other transport equipment manufacturing, showed an increase in both export volume and price. The exports of oil, gas, and entertainment products declined, with 6 industries, such as the wine, beverage, and refined tea manufacturing industry, showing a decrease in export demand [39][41]. Commodity Comparison - China's weapon imports contracted, and art imports expanded again. As of November 2025, the import value index expanded at a slower pace, with 13 types of commodities showing growth and 8 showing a decline [45]. - China's art exports contracted, but precious metal exports expanded. As of November 2025, the export value index expanded at an accelerated pace, with 11 types of commodities showing growth and 10 showing a decline [46]. Import - China's demand for resource imports remained high. As of December 2025, China's imports of bauxite (29.4%) and rubber (16.7%) continued to grow at a relatively high rate. The import growth rates of some key commodities continued to slow, such as rare earths (- 24%) and automobiles (- 32.4%) [53]. Export - China's export demand for goods remained strong. As of December 2025, the exports of cement (107.2%), fertilizers (44%), and electric vehicles (63.8%) maintained high growth rates. Only a few commodities' exports declined, such as machine tools (- 8.2%) and aluminum (- 8%) [58]. Net Export - China's net export demand for goods remained strong overall. As of December 2025, the net exports of electric vehicles (93.3%), grain (56.3%), and other commodities maintained high growth rates. Only a few commodities' net exports declined, such as aluminum (- 12.4%) and rubber (- 13%) [62]. Regional Comparison - China's foreign trade country structure: As of December 2025, China's top 5 foreign trade partners were ASEAN, the EU, the US, Hong Kong, China, and South Korea. In the past 5 years, the trade volume between ASEAN and China increased by 1.59 percentage points, while that between the US and China decreased by 5.30 percentage points [66]. - China's import country structure: As of December 2025, China's top 5 import sources were ASEAN, the EU, Taiwan, China, South Korea, and Japan. In the past 5 years, China's import share from Russia increased by 2.21 percentage points, while that from the EU and the US decreased [66]. - China's export country structure: As of December 2025, China's top 5 export destinations were ASEAN, the EU, the US, Hong Kong, China, and Vietnam. In the past 5 years, China's export share to ASEAN increased by 2.72 percentage points, while that to the US and Hong Kong, China decreased [67]. - China's foreign trade growth rate: As of December 2025, the 3 countries or regions with the highest trade growth rates with China were Hong Kong, China (25.66% YoY), Vietnam (16.77% YoY), and Indonesia (14.79% YoY); the 3 with the lowest were the US (- 25.97% YoY), Malaysia (- 19.89% YoY), and Canada (- 6.55% YoY) [79].