黑色金属日报-20260114

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Re bar: Three red stars, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Hot - rolled coil: Three red stars, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Iron ore: Three red stars, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Coke: One red star, indicating a bullish trend but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Coking coal: One red star with one white star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability [1] - Silicomanganese: Two red stars, indicating a clear upward trend and the market condition is showing on the trading floor [1] - Ferrosilicon: Three red stars, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Report's Core View - The steel market has little supply - demand contradiction, with cautious market sentiment, and the trading floor is expected to continue the range - bound pattern in the short term [2] - The iron ore market has a relatively loose fundamental situation and is expected to fluctuate in the short term [3] - The coke and coking coal markets are likely to have a strong - side fluctuating trend, considering the supply situation and market policy expectations [4][6] - The silicomanganese and ferrosilicon markets are recommended to buy on dips [7][8] Grouped by Commodity Steel - The steel futures trading floor continued to fluctuate in a narrow range. The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the market sentiment is cautious, with the short - term trading floor continuing the range - bound pattern [2] - The demand for steel in the downstream industries is weak, but the steel exports in December reached a new high [2] Iron Ore - The global iron ore shipment decreased seasonally, while the domestic arrival volume increased, and the port inventory continued to accumulate [3] - The terminal demand is weak in the off - season, and the short - term resumption of production is difficult. The steel mills' import ore inventory is still low, and there is still an expectation for winter storage replenishment [3] Coke - The coke trading price increased sporadically, with general coking profit and a slight increase in daily production [4] - The carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream demand is at an off - season level, with the steel mills still having a strong intention to suppress prices [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal production decreased slightly, and the spot auction transactions continued to improve, with the terminal inventory increasing slightly [6] - The total coking coal inventory increased significantly, and the production - end inventory increased sharply [6] Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese price rebounded after reaching the bottom. The manganese ore spot price increased, and there are structural problems in the manganese ore port inventory [7] - The iron water production decreased seasonally, and the silicomanganese weekly production and inventory decreased slightly [7] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price rebounded after reaching the bottom. Affected by relevant policies, the price is relatively strong [8] - The iron water production rebounded to a high - level range, and the export demand decreased, but the overall demand is still resilient [8]