银河期货贵金属衍生品日报-20260114

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold and silver prices reached new all - time highs today due to factors such as the US inflation data being in line with expectations, the escalation of the US - Iran situation driving up safe - haven demand, and the planned launch of a 100 - ounce silver futures contract by CME [3][7]. - The platinum and palladium markets also showed certain trends. The slowdown of US core inflation was beneficial for precious metals pricing, and geopolitical events and policy uncertainties affected the market [15]. - From the 2026 supply - demand balance sheet, platinum is in a tight - balance pattern and has stronger upward momentum compared to palladium, which is shifting from a supply - demand deficit to a surplus [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Gold and Silver Market - London gold hit a new all - time high of $4639.723 per ounce, and London silver reached $91.551 per ounce. The Shanghai gold main contract reached a new high of 1041 yuan per gram and closed at 1040.62 yuan, up 1.07%, with the weighted daily position increasing by 11996 lots to 348,500 lots. The Shanghai silver main contract reached a new high of 22,995 yuan per kilogram and closed at 22,763 yuan, up 8.03%, with the weighted daily position increasing by 18213 lots to 736,500 lots [3]. 3.1.2 Platinum and Palladium Market - London platinum and palladium both rose and then fell. As of 3 pm, London platinum was trading at $2390.90, and London palladium was at $1860.56. The platinum and palladium contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange opened higher and fluctuated. The platinum main contract PT2606 closed up 3.67% at 630.65 yuan per gram, with the weighted daily position increasing by 419 lots to 38859 lots, and the settled funds reaching 8.823 billion yuan (an inflow of 1.847 billion yuan). The palladium main contract PD2606 closed up 1.60% at 495.50 yuan per gram, with the weighted daily position decreasing by 182 lots to 15022 lots, and the settled funds reaching 2.682 billion yuan (an inflow of 476 million yuan) [11][13]. 3.2 Important Information 3.2.1 US Macroeconomic Data - The US December un - adjusted CPI annual rate was 2.7%, in line with expectations; the un - adjusted core CPI annual rate was 2.6%, lower than the expected 2.7%; the seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate was 0.3%, in line with expectations; and the seasonally adjusted core CPI monthly rate was 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.3% [4]. 3.2.2 Geopolitical Situation - The EU is discussing additional sanctions against Iran. Trump cancelled all meetings with Iranian officials, and the US National Security Team will formulate a strategy against Iran [4]. 3.2.3 Fed Views - Fed's Musalem said there are few reasons for further policy easing in the short term and still believes inflation risks will be more persistent than expected [4]. 3.2.4 Fed Observation - The probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in January is 2.8%, and the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 97.2%. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 26.8%, and the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 72.5%. The probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in April has risen slightly from 38% to 42% [4]. 3.2.5 Other Information - On the 13th, CME announced plans to launch a 100 - ounce silver futures contract on February 9, 2026, pending regulatory approval [6]. 3.3 Logic Analysis 3.3.1 Gold and Silver - US inflation data was in line with expectations, and the US - Iran situation and previous geopolitical events increased the safe - haven demand. The planned launch of a mini - silver contract by CME may bring more liquidity to the market, driving up gold and silver prices. The silver market shows high - level and high - volatility characteristics. Short - term attention should be paid to the US court's ruling on tariff policies [7]. 3.3.2 Platinum and Palladium - The slowdown of core inflation in the US is beneficial for precious metals pricing. Geopolitical events and policy uncertainties such as the "232 investigation" and "double - anti" investigations affect the market. From the supply - demand balance sheet, platinum has stronger upward momentum [15][16][18]. 3.4 Trading Strategies 3.4.1 Gold and Silver - Unilateral: Hold long positions in Shanghai gold based on the previous all - time high at the end of December, and hold long positions in Shanghai silver based on the support near the previous all - time high on the 12th of this month. Arbitrage and options: Wait and see [8][9][10]. 3.4.2 Platinum and Palladium - Unilateral: Generally, it is recommended to go long on platinum on dips. For palladium, it is recommended to go long cautiously on dips before the "232 investigation" results are announced, but pay attention to risks. Arbitrage and options: Wait and see [19][20][21]. 3.5 Data Reference - Multiple charts show the relationships between the US dollar index, real yields, and precious metal prices, as well as the relationships between domestic and foreign futures prices, futures - spot prices, and other data for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium [24][31][73].