股票市场月度债券市场月度-20260114

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Stock Market - US Stocks - Overweight [32] - European Stocks - Equal-weight [33] - Chinese A-shares - Equal-weight [35] - Hong Kong Stocks - Overweight [36] - Japanese Market - Overweight [40] - Indian Market - Equal-weight [41] Bond Market - US Bond Market - Overweight [57] - Chinese Bond Market - Overweight [59] - Japanese Bond Market - Underweight [60] - European Bond Market - Equal-weight [62] 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2025, global stock markets rose due to improved global liquidity under the Fed's interest rate cuts. Vietnamese stocks led in December, while US stocks were volatile at the end of the year, and the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index performed poorly in the last three months [30][31] - In December, the primary market of Chinese overseas bonds had different issuance situations for US dollar bonds and offshore RMB bonds. The secondary market of Chinese overseas bonds generally showed an upward trend [46][49][50] - In December, major global bond markets had mixed performances. The Fed's policy and market expectations affected the US bond market, while China's bond market rose due to policy support and economic data [53][59] - In December, the US dollar index declined, and the yen depreciated. The Fed's expected interest rate cuts in 2026 will weaken the US dollar, and the yen's interest rate attractiveness is insufficient [67] - In December, gold continued to rise but may have short - term corrections. Silver rose strongly but was highly volatile, and crude oil prices were weak and expected to remain under pressure [71] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Market - 12 - month Performance: In December, most major global stock indices had different performances. The Vietnamese VN30 Index led with a 5.55% monthly increase, while the Hang Seng Tech Index had a significant decline of 1.48%. In 2025, all major global stock indices recorded gains [30][31] - US Stocks: The three major US stock indices had a differentiated trend in December. The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a record high, while the Nasdaq Composite Index declined slightly. The reasons for maintaining an overweight rating include the Fed's positive economic outlook, clear support for market liquidity, and the continuous realization of AI business [32][34] - European Stocks: European major stock indices oscillated higher in December. The reasons for maintaining an equal - weight rating are the stronger - than - expected economic resilience in the eurozone and the lack of growth potential despite lower valuations [33][34] - Chinese A - shares: The A - share market had a mild upward trend in December. The reasons for maintaining an equal - weight rating are the shift of policies from scale expansion to quality and efficiency improvement, slow fundamental repair, and a good liquidity structure [35] - Hong Kong Stocks: The Hong Kong stock market was under pressure in December. The reasons for maintaining an overweight rating are the expected return of southbound funds and the still - low valuation [36][38] - Japanese/Indian Markets: The Japanese stock market maintained a high - level oscillation in December. The reasons for upgrading to an overweight rating are the slower - than - expected pace of monetary policy normalization and the government's large - scale fiscal stimulus. The Indian stock market was in a high - level oscillation in December, and the reasons for downgrading to an equal - weight rating are trade frictions and currency depreciation, although the economy still maintains high - speed growth [40][41] Bond Market - 12 - month Performance: In December, major global bond markets had different performances. The Bloomberg US Treasury Bond Index declined by 0.51%, while the Bloomberg China Treasury and Policy Bank Bond Index rose by 1.22% [53][59] - US Bond Market: The US bond market declined in December. The reasons for an overweight rating are the expected Fed interest rate cuts in 2026 and its role in hedging market risks [57][59] - Chinese Bond Market: The Chinese bond market rose in December. The reasons for an overweight rating are the expectation of fiscal stimulus and the attractiveness of real yields [59] - Japanese Bond Market: The Japanese bond market declined significantly in December. The reasons for an underweight rating are the expected further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan and fiscal risks [60][62] - European Bond Market: The European bond market was under pressure in December. The reasons for an equal - weight rating are the reduced expectation of safe - haven demand for European bonds and increased fiscal policy uncertainty [62] Foreign Exchange Market - 12 - month Performance: In December, the US dollar index showed a mild downward trend, and the yen still depreciated slightly. The long - term stability of the US dollar is a concern, and the yen's interest rate attractiveness is insufficient [67] Commodity Market - 12 - month Performance: In December, gold continued to rise, silver had a strong but volatile upswing, and crude oil prices were weak. Gold may have short - term corrections, silver has a risk of retracement after excessive speculation, and crude oil prices are expected to remain under pressure [71] Fund Selection - December Performance: The selected funds in December had different returns. For example, the monthly increase of the Taikang Kaitai Hong Kong Dollar Money Fund A HKD was 0.24%, and the monthly increase of the Huaxia Selected Greater China Technology Fund A HKD Acc was 3.63% [75]