市场主流观点汇总2026/1/13-20260114

Report Overview - This report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logics [2]. Market Data Commodity Market - From January 5 to January 9, 2026, silver had the highest weekly increase of 9.70% among commodities, followed by coking coal at 7.22%, and aluminum at 6.13%. Polycrystalline silicon had the largest decline of -11.43% [3]. A-share Market - During the same period, the CSI 500 rose 7.92%, the SSE 50 rose 3.40%, and the SHS 300 rose 2.79% [3]. Overseas Stock Market - The Nikkei 225 rose 3.18%, the French CAC 40 rose 2.61%, and the Hang Seng Index rose 2.35% [3]. Bond Market - The yield of the 2-year Chinese Treasury bond increased by 8.18 bp, the 5-year by 3 bp, and the 10-year by 2.91 bp [3]. Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index rose 0.88%, the US dollar central parity rate fell -0.23%, and the euro against the US dollar fell -0.95% [3]. Commodity Views Macro - Financial Sector Stock Index Futures - Among 7 institutions, 6 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 1 sees a sideways trend. Bullish factors include rising overseas stocks, improved CPI and PPI, policy support, increasing margin trading, and the resonance of fundamental improvement and liquidity easing. Bearish factors include high valuations, potential policy implementation shortfalls, concentrated short - term bullish sentiment, and possible non - interest - rate cuts by the Fed [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - Among 7 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 3 see a sideways trend. Bullish factors are loose funds, increased entry of institutional investors, and unimproved inflation structure. Bearish factors include concerns about long - term bond supply, strong stock market performance, and expectations of re - inflation trading [4]. Energy Sector - Among 8 institutions, 1 is bullish, 0 are bearish, and 7 see a sideways trend. Bullish factors are the ongoing Middle East conflict, reduced Venezuelan exports, strong US economic data, and geopolitical support for oil prices. Bearish factors are the expected global oil supply surplus in 2026, non - OPEC production expansion, weak winter demand, and limited fundamental improvement [5]. Agricultural Products Sector - Among 7 institutions, 0 are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 see a sideways trend. Bullish factors are strong spot prices, potential seasonal demand improvement, and positive market sentiment. Bearish factors are the expected Brazilian soybean harvest, high domestic inventories, sufficient imports, high feed enterprise inventories, and the resumption of soybean auctions [5]. Non - Ferrous Metals Sector Copper - Among 7 institutions, 3 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 4 see a sideways trend. Bullish factors are low copper concentrate processing fees, mine strikes in Chile, strong LME spot and high cancelled warrants, government subsidies, and emerging industry demand. Bearish factors are domestic inventory pressure, weak downstream transactions, high - price suppression of consumption, and a decrease in speculative net long positions [6]. Chemical Industry Sector Glass - Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 3 see a sideways trend. Bullish factors are active mid - stream restocking, reduced daily melting volume, improved spot sales due to rising futures prices, and expected production cuts in Hubei. Bearish factors are high industry inventory, low downstream acceptance of price increases, and weak end - of - year demand [6]. Precious Metals Sector Gold - Among 7 institutions, 4 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 3 see a sideways trend. Bullish factors are central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, seasonal demand, and technical upward trends. Bearish factors are margin adjustments, potential index rebalancing selling, and a short - term strong US dollar [7]. Black Metals Sector Coking Coal - Among 7 institutions, 0 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 7 see a sideways trend. Bullish factors are stable and rising pig iron production, rising Mongolian coal import prices, pre - holiday steel mill restocking, and expected future supply reduction. Bearish factors are increased Mongolian coal imports, rising domestic coal mine production, and weak downstream demand [7].