天富期货棉花早报-20260114

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The agricultural product sector shows diverse trends. Pig prices break through and rise, cotton continues to climb, palm oil fluctuates at a high level, soybean meal oscillates downward, sugar and eggs oscillate upward, and the prices of different varieties are affected by various factors such as supply and demand, policies, and technical indicators [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Product Sector Overview - Pig prices break through and rise above the 12,000 mark, with reduced supply from breeders and increased pre - year - end stocking demand on the demand side, and the futures price may gradually open up an upward space [1]. - Cotton prices continue to rise, supported by the expected decline in cotton planting in Xinjiang this year and strong downstream demand [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking - Pig: The main 2603 contract breaks through and rises, boosted by the peak demand season. After the peak slaughter in December 2025, the slaughter plan of large - scale pig enterprises in January decreases, and the supply of suitable - weight pigs decreases. The demand for southern curing and pre - Spring Festival demand support the price. The price has a 6.8% increase from late December to early January. Technically, it turns strong, and the strategy is to go long with a light position on dips, with support at 11,800 - 11,880 [2]. - Palm Oil: The main 2605 contract first rises and then falls, narrowing the increase. Indonesia cancels the B50 plan, which has a bearish impact. However, Malaysia's palm oil exports are strong, and production decreases, which is conducive to inventory reduction. Indonesia will raise the export tax on crude palm oil, which may support the price. Technically, it remains strong, and the strategy is to go long with a light position on dips, with support at 8,680 - 8,700 [3]. - Soybean Meal: The main 2605 contract oscillates downward, pressured by abundant domestic supply. The USDA report is bearish, and domestic soybean imports are large, with high inventory, suppressing the price. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is short - term trading [5]. - Cotton: The main 2605 contract continues to oscillate upward, supported by strong downstream demand. The USDA report is bullish, and the expected decline in Xinjiang's cotton planting area in 2026 and strong demand support the price. Technically, it stabilizes, and the strategy is to go long with a light position, with support at 14,620 - 14,700 [7]. - Sugar: The main 2605 contract oscillates upward, recovering the previous day's decline. The expected increase in pre - year - end consumption supports the price. Although the supply is sufficient, the demand is boosted by Spring Festival stocking. Technically, it turns strong, and the strategy is to go long with a light position on dips, with support at 5,270 - 5,280 [9]. - Egg: The main 2603 contract oscillates and rebounds after two - day adjustment. The high inventory of laying hens and the start of Spring Festival stocking limit the downside space. Technically, it oscillates, and the strategy is short - term trading [11].