地缘情绪短期偏多，等待溢价回吐高空机会

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term driving force of crude oil is centered around the Iranian geopolitical risks. Geopolitical premiums are short - term disturbances, and it is advisable to wait for mid - term short - selling opportunities. Chemical products should be viewed differently. Methanol has significant fundamental pressure, and its geopolitical premium is likely to reverse. The short - term strength of styrene is due to inventory reduction, but the sustainability of the raw material's strength is questionable. PX - PTA is in an adjustment phase, and it is not yet time to enter the second long position. The fundamentals of PP and plastics in the olefin chain are weak, maintaining a bearish view [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - Logic: In addition to the inventory build - up in the first - quarter supply - demand balance sheets of the three major institutions, the API crude oil and refined oil inventories in the US showed a significant build - up again. The market is currently driven by Iranian geopolitical risks, but there are no pre - conditions for a short - term military strike. Geopolitical premiums are short - term disturbances, and mid - term short - selling opportunities should be awaited. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level chart shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level chart shows a short - term upward structure. It faced resistance at the 447 level today and support is at the 433 (03 contract) level. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [4]. (2) Asphalt - Logic: The downstream terminal demand is in the off - season. The current pricing of the market mainly depends on the future flow of Venezuelan Merey crude oil. If Venezuelan crude oil flows to the US instead of Asia, the increase in cost of alternative raw materials for domestic refineries will support the market. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level chart shows a short - term upward structure, with intraday fluctuations returning to the oscillation range. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [6]. (3) Styrene - Logic: The weekly operating rate is 70.92%, slightly increasing month - on - month but at a low level year - on - year. Both supply and demand are weak. However, since December, export inquiries and actual transactions have increased, and port inventories have decreased significantly. The continuous inventory reduction and market sentiment have led to short - term strength, but the sustainability of the raw material's strength is questionable. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level chart shows a short - term upward structure, reaching a short - term high with increased positions today. The short - term support has moved up to the 6990 level. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see, and look for short - selling opportunities after a rebound when the support is broken [10]. (4) Rubber - Logic: Terminal tire inventories are high, and Qingdao's natural rubber inventories continue to build up and are higher than the same period last year. There are no disruptions on the supply side, and it is not yet in the speculative stage. This upward movement is a passive follow - up of synthetic rubber, and the upside is limited due to the weakening of downstream tire operating rates. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level chart shows a mid - term oscillation structure, and the hourly - level chart shows a short - term upward structure. It reached a high and then declined today, with the short - term support moving up to the 15800 level. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [14]. (5) Synthetic Rubber - Logic: Supply remains high, but the downstream's phased restocking has led to inventory reduction of synthetic rubber and its raw material butadiene. The strengthening of butadiene has driven the upward movement of synthetic rubber from the cost side. However, the spot trading of butadiene weakened over the weekend, and tire operating rates weakened again, limiting the upside. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level chart shows a mid - term upward structure, and the hourly - level chart shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in volume today. The short - term support has moved up to the 11800 level. The hourly - level strategy is to wait and see [18]. (6) PX - Logic: The fundamentals of PX - PTA are strong in both reality and expectation. In December, capital inflows led to a significant price increase, but downstream polyester has a low acceptance of high prices during the off - season. Some large polyester filament manufacturers are reducing production, leading to a short - term correction. In the mid - term, there is an expected supply shortage in the first half of the year, so it is advisable to wait for a second low - buying opportunity. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level chart shows a mid - term upward structure, and the hourly - level chart shows a short - term oscillation structure. It fluctuated within the day today, with short - term pressure at the 7420 level. The hourly - level strategy is to wait and see [22]. (7) PTA - Logic: Similar to PX, the fundamentals of PX - PTA are strong in both reality and expectation. In December, capital inflows led to a significant price increase, but downstream polyester has a low acceptance of high prices during the off - season. Some large polyester filament manufacturers are reducing production, leading to a short - term correction. In the mid - term, there is an expected supply shortage in the first half of the year, so it is advisable to wait for a second low - buying opportunity. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level chart shows a mid - term upward structure, and the hourly - level chart shows a short - term oscillation structure. It fluctuated within the day today, with short - term pressure at the 5220 level. The hourly - level strategy is to wait and see [23][25]. (8) PP - Logic: The fundamentals of the olefin industry chain to which PP belongs are still weak. With new production capacity coming on stream and the off - season of demand, the supply - demand drive is weak. There is no driving force for a long - position. It is recommended to use a chemical configuration logic of going long on aromatics (PX, PTA) and short on olefins (PP, plastics) in the mid - term. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level chart shows a short - term upward structure. It closed slightly up with reduced positions today. The short - term support is at the 6430 level. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [26]. (9) Methanol - Logic: Domestic supply remains high, and the expected reduction in imports in January has been priced in the market. Downstream traditional demand is expected to decrease before the Spring Festival, and MTO demand is expected to decline due to compressed profits. Both port and inland inventories are high, and the port inventory is 154 million tons, 80% higher than the same period last year. The Iranian unrest is gradually subsiding, and the geopolitical premium is likely to reverse. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level chart shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level chart shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in volume today but failed to break through the upper limit of the 15 - minute oscillation range. The short - term (hourly) support is at the 2200 level. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see, and hold a short position on the 15 - minute chart with a stop - loss at the 2300 level [29]. (10) PVC - Logic: The pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand remains. However, the proposed differential electricity price in Shaanxi may lead to a reduction in calcium carbide production, which is positive. The announcement of canceling the VAT export tax rebate for PVC from April 1, 2026, brings short - term positive and long - term negative effects, with a short - term expectation of inventory reduction due to pre - export rush. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level chart shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level chart shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated within the day today, with short - term support at the 4725 level. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [32]. (11) Ethylene Glycol - Logic: Terminal demand is in the traditional off - season, and there are concerns about a decline in polyester operating rates. On the supply side, coal - based production has recovered, and domestic weekly production remains high, with new production capacity expected. Port inventories are still building up, and there is no driving force for a significant reversal. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level chart shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level structure is unclear. It increased in volume with reduced positions today, and the short - term support is at the 3800 level. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [35]. (12) Plastics - Logic: Similar to PP, the fundamentals of the olefin industry chain to which plastics belong are still weak. With new production capacity coming on stream and the off - season of demand, the supply - demand drive is weak. There is no driving force for a long - position. It is recommended to use a chemical configuration logic of going long on aromatics (PX, PTA) and short on olefins (PP, plastics) in the mid - term. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level chart shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level chart shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in volume with reduced positions today. The short - term support is at the 66070 level. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [37][39]. (13) Soda Ash - Logic: The oversupply situation of soda ash remains unchanged, and there is little expectation of an increase in terminal demand. After the resumption of maintenance on the supply side, the operating rate has increased, and the previous support from inventory reduction is no longer there. There is no driving force for a significant reversal. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level structure is unclear. It oscillated within the day today. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities after a small - cycle rebound when the price breaks below the lower limit of the 15 - minute oscillation range at the 1200 level. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [41]. (14) Caustic Soda - Logic: Caustic soda still has a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The supply - demand drive is downward, and there is no sign of a reversal. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level chart shows a short - term downward structure. It reached a new low with increased positions today. The short - term pressure is at the 2125 level. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [43].