天富期货碳酸锂、多晶硅、工业硅日报-20260114

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views - The lithium carbonate market is currently in a situation of "strong reality, strong expectation", and the operation should still focus on buying on dips. The polysilicon market may continue to be weak, and the industrial silicon market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term [1][3][13] Summary by Related Catalogs Carbonate Lithium - Market Trend: The lithium carbonate futures had a certain degree of correction today. The main 2605 contract fell 3.02% compared with the previous trading day's closing price, reporting 161,940 yuan/ton [1] - Core Logic: The exchange's regulatory intervention last night cooled the market sentiment, and long - position funds took profits. The recent sharp rise was due to the "rush to export" logic of battery enterprises before the VAT export tax rebate rate of battery products was lowered in April, and the high prosperity of terminal demand [1] - Technical Analysis: From the perspective of overall capital sentiment, it is still controlled by bulls, but the recent sharp decline in positions needs to be vigilant against the risk of trampling caused by the concentrated realization of long - position profit - taking. The 5 - minute level cycle of the current lithium carbonate main 2605 contract is a green line, blue ribbon, and green ladder, and the overnight 2 - hour level cycle is still a red ladder line, with the long - short dividing water level at 142,300 yuan/ton [1] - Strategy Suggestion: In the context of "strong reality, strong expectation", operate by buying on dips. Avoid short - selling at the top or chasing high directly. Find good entry positions based on the "First K Breakthrough Method" or "Three - Line Resonance Method" intraday [1] - Follow - up Focus: The actual progress of battery exports in the first quarter, the recovery of new energy vehicle sales data after subsidy extension, and the actual impact of geopolitical situation on lithium ore supply [2][6] Polysilicon - Market Trend: The polysilicon futures continued the downward trend today. The main 2605 contract fell 0.12% compared with the previous trading day's closing price, reporting 48,945 yuan/ton [3] - Core Logic: After the market supervision department interviewed the photovoltaic association and leading enterprises, the silicon material price will return to cost game. Currently, the supply and demand of polysilicon are both weak, and the industry inventory is at a three - year high, so the futures price may continue to be under pressure [3] - Technical Analysis: The position of polysilicon futures continued to decline. The 5 - minute level cycle of the current polysilicon 2605 contract is a red line, red ribbon, and red ladder, and the overnight 2 - hour level cycle is a green ladder line, with the long - short dividing water level at 58,300 yuan/ton [7] - Strategy Suggestion: Polysilicon may continue to be weak [8] - Follow - up Focus: The follow - up policy direction of "anti - involution" [9] Industrial Silicon - Market Trend: The industrial silicon futures fluctuated strongly today. The 2605 contract rose 1.39% compared with the previous trading day's closing price, reporting 8,755 yuan/ton [10] - Core Logic: Today's fluctuating rise was a short - covering rally from the perspective of capital sentiment, still controlled by bears. Fundamentally, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are both weak, downstream procurement is sluggish, and inventory is at a three - year high, lacking upward drive but with certain cost support. There is no substantial positive or negative impact to drive the futures price to break through the current fluctuation range, so it is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term [13] - Technical Analysis: The overall position of industrial silicon futures continued to decline. The 5 - minute level cycle of the current industrial silicon 2605 contract is a green line, red ribbon, and red ladder, and the overnight 2 - hour level cycle is a green ladder line, with the long - short dividing water level at 8,980 yuan/ton [13] - Strategy Suggestion: Currently in the middle of the fluctuation range, it is recommended to short on rebounds. In the long - term, pay attention to the transmission effect of polysilicon's return to cost pricing on industrial silicon. Intraday operations can refer to the Band Winner indicator in the 8:30 morning live broadcast [13] - Follow - up Focus: The follow - up policy direction of "anti - involution" [14]