中观景气1月第2期：新兴科技景气延续，周期资源价格上涨

Downstream Consumption - The tourism sector continues to improve, with Shanghai Disneyland's crowd index increasing by 10.9% week-on-week and 103.5% year-on-year, indicating sustained high levels of visitor engagement [7] - Hainan's tourism price index rose by 11.7% week-on-week, driven by the lifting of travel restrictions, reflecting a significant improvement in tourism activity [7] - The real estate market remains under pressure, with a 38.9% year-on-year decline in transaction volume across 30 major cities, and a 17.4% decline in second-hand housing transactions in key cities [8] Technology & Manufacturing - The AI industry continues to thrive, with semiconductor sales in China reaching $20.23 billion in November 2025, a year-on-year increase of 22.9% [19] - DRAM prices for DDR4 and DDR5 increased by 8.3% and 6.6% respectively, indicating a tight supply-demand balance in the semiconductor market [19] - The manufacturing sector shows signs of recovery, with an increase in hiring intentions, as evidenced by a 21.8% year-on-year rise in job postings [33] Upstream Resources - Coal prices have rebounded by 2.5% week-on-week, attributed to improved winter demand [41] - Industrial metal prices are on the rise, with copper and aluminum prices increasing by 3.2% and 6.1% respectively, driven by supply disruptions and strong global demand expectations [43] Logistics and Passenger Flow - Passenger transport demand has decreased, with a 5.5% week-on-week drop in subway ridership in major cities, although year-on-year figures remain positive [47] - Freight logistics demand has rebounded post-holiday, with highway truck traffic and railway freight volumes increasing by 17.3% and 10.3% respectively [52]