外贸数据点评：为何12月出口“再超预期”？

Export Data - December 2025 exports increased by 6.6% year-on-year, exceeding expectations of 2.2% and the previous value of 5.9%[1] - Imports rose by 5.7% year-on-year, against an expectation of -0.3% and a prior value of 1.9%[1] Key Factors Supporting Exports - The appreciation of the RMB since November contributed to a 0.4 percentage point increase in December's export value[2] - Strong demand for consumer electronics and production materials, driven by new product launches and improved external demand, particularly from emerging economies[2] - Global manufacturing PMI remained stable at 50.4%, indicating resilience in manufacturing activity[2] Country-Specific Trends - Exports to emerging economies increased by 1.4 percentage points to 13.5% year-on-year, with notable growth to ASEAN and India at 11.1% and 22.1% respectively[2] - Exports to developed economies showed a slight decline, with a 1.5 percentage point drop to the U.S. and a 3.3 percentage point drop to Europe[2] Commodity Insights - Consumer electronics exports surged by 16.3% to 19.6%, with mobile phone exports significantly boosted by new product releases[3] - Imports of major commodities like copper and iron ore saw substantial increases of 63.8% and 61.4% respectively[3] Future Outlook - Continued improvement in external demand and China's competitive export advantages are expected to sustain strong export resilience into 2026[4] - Potential recovery in U.S. exports due to easing tariff conflicts and ongoing inventory replenishment[4]