2026年投资展望系列之十三：2026信用债机构行为新动向

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the scale of wealth management may grow steadily, but the proportion of credit bond allocation is likely to decline. The behavior of funds will be the core indicator of the credit bond market, and the concentrated opening of amortized bond funds may boost the demand for credit bonds with specific maturities. The growth rate of credit bond ETFs may slow down [1][2][4][5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2026 Wealth Management Scale May Grow Steadily, Credit Bond Allocation Proportion Is Hard to Rise - 2026 wealth management scale growth may be in the range of 2.7 - 3.4 trillion yuan: From 2024 - 2025, the scale of bank wealth management grew steadily, with annual increments exceeding 3 trillion yuan. The core driver was asset re - allocation during the downward cycle of deposit rates. It is estimated that the growth of wealth management scale in 2026 may be in the range of 2.7 - 3.4 trillion yuan [2][13][24] - The proportion of credit bond allocation in wealth management shows a downward trend: In 2025, due to the rectification of net - value smoothing methods, the proportion of bond allocation and credit bond allocation in wealth management decreased. In 2026, in the context of full net - value management and a low - spread environment, the proportion of credit bond allocation may be difficult to increase [26] - Wealth management bond allocation shows seasonal characteristics and focuses on coupon cost - effectiveness: In 2025, the willingness of wealth management to increase credit bond allocation decreased, mainly concentrating on bonds within 3 years. The bond allocation rhythm of wealth management is affected by scale changes and shows seasonal characteristics [30] - The net purchase of inter - bank certificates of deposit by other asset management products exceeded that of credit bonds: In 2025, the proportion of net purchases of credit bonds by other asset management products decreased significantly, while they increased the allocation of inter - bank certificates of deposit, which reflects the wealth management's large - scale increase in inter - bank certificates of deposit through entrusted asset management products for liquidity management [35][36] 3.2 In 2026, Fund Behavior Is the Core Indicator of the Credit Bond Market - In 2026, the growth rate of bond fund scale may be under pressure: The new regulations on fund sales fees in December 2025 may weaken the attractiveness of short - term bond funds, and if the pattern of a strong stock market and a weak bond market continues in 2026, it may suppress the growth of bond fund scale [4][43] - The proportion of funds allocating credit bonds increased, and the duration operation is flexible: In 2025, the willingness of funds to increase credit bond allocation increased, mainly due to the large expansion of credit bond ETFs and the relative advantage of credit bond coupon strategies in a volatile market. Funds mainly net - bought credit bonds within 5 years in 2025, with flexible duration operations [50][53] - The concentrated opening of amortized bond funds may drive the demand for credit bond allocation with specific maturities: In 2026, the concentrated opening of amortized bond funds is expected to exceed 60 billion yuan. If some products turn to a credit - style, it may boost the demand for credit bonds with corresponding maturities, especially medium - to high - grade 5 - year and 3 - year varieties [6][63] - The growth rate of credit bond ETF scale may slow down: In 2025, credit bond ETFs achieved leap - forward development, but in 2026, it may be difficult to reproduce the large - scale new issuance, and the scale growth may mainly rely on existing products to attract incremental funds. The scale change of credit bond ETFs is also greatly affected by interest rate trends [6][67][68]