2026年首批超长期特别国债资金提前下达，空调龙头企业宣布提价

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [6] Core Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance announced a large-scale equipment update and old-for-new consumption policy for 2026, with an initial allocation of 62.5 billion yuan in special long-term bonds to support this initiative [6] - Consumers purchasing major home appliances such as refrigerators, washing machines, televisions, air conditioners, computers, and water heaters that meet first-level energy efficiency or water efficiency standards can receive a subsidy of 15% of the sales price, with a cap of 1,500 yuan per item [6] - In 2025, the old-for-new program generated over 2.6 trillion yuan in sales, benefiting more than 360 million consumers, with over 129 million home appliances replaced [6] - Midea announced a price adjustment for air conditioning products starting January 3, 2026, reflecting the tightening of subsidy boundaries and upgraded standards in the new policy [6] - The price of copper, a key raw material for air conditioning manufacturing, surged over 40% in 2025, creating significant cost pressure for air conditioning production [6] - The air conditioning industry is expected to face ongoing cost pressures from upstream raw materials in 2026, with predictions of copper prices reaching 12,750 USD per ton in the first half of the year [6] - The 2026 subsidy policy focuses on six high-frequency essential home appliances, eliminating subsidies for second-level energy efficiency products, which may lead to a faster industry reshuffle [6] - Companies with strong technological reserves and supply chain control are expected to break through profit bottlenecks, while brands relying on low-price competition will face severe survival challenges [6] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The industry has shown relative returns of -2.32% over the past month, 1.57% over the past three months, and -12.35% over the past year compared to the CSI 300 index [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on listed companies in the white goods sector such as Midea Group, Gree Electric Appliances, and Hisense Home Appliances, as well as black goods exporters like TCL Electronics and Hisense Visual [6]