宏观经济点评：AI产业需求驱动出口上行

Group 1: Export Performance - In December, China's exports increased by 6.6% year-on-year, up from 5.9% in the previous month[2] - December exports in absolute terms rose by 8.3% month-on-month, exceeding the 7.6% growth of December 2024[3] - The strong demand for AI-related products significantly contributed to the rebound in external demand, with Vietnam's exports to the U.S. and total exports showing seasonal rebounds[3][13] Group 2: AI Industry Impact - The AI industry is driving a shift in export contributions from quantity to price, with electronic products and automotive exports showing significant improvement[5][25] - In December, the export of electronic products, including mobile phones, achieved a year-on-year growth of 10.6%, a substantial recovery from a decline of 12.6% previously[25] - The demand for AI products is resilient, with Vietnam's exports of computers and electronic components contributing 9.6 percentage points to total exports in December[20] Group 3: Future Outlook - For 2026, exports are expected to grow cautiously, with a projected year-on-year increase of 2% to 4%, primarily supported by AI industry demand and related regional needs[5][35] - High-frequency data indicates a potential decline in exports, with a year-on-year decrease of around 2% noted for the first half of January[5][35] - Risks include unexpected declines in external demand and policy changes that could impact export performance[38]