格林大华期货早盘提示-20260115

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the global economy in the macro and financial sector is "downward" [1] Core Viewpoints - The global political order has entered a dark period of the law of the jungle, causing great uncertainty to the global economy. The global economy has passed its peak and is starting to decline due to the continuous wrong policies of the United States [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Information - International investors are accelerating the allocation of Chinese assets, and active overseas funds have begun to re - add Chinese assets [1] - In December, the US CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose 2.6% year - on - year. Traders increased their bets on the Fed's interest rate cut, and the probability of a rate cut in April rose to 42% [1] - The US State Department asked US citizens to leave Iran immediately. The US Department of Defense pizza index soared, indicating major actions, and the latest US military actions in the Middle East were exposed [1] - JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned that Trump's attack on the Fed's independence would backfire, leading to rising inflation expectations and interest rates, and that Trump's proposed credit card interest rate cap would limit credit supply [1] - Trump criticized federal prosecutors, and prosecutors issued a subpoena to the Fed to investigate Powell's testimony, raising concerns about political interference in judicial independence [1] - SK Hynix decided to invest 19 trillion won (about $12.9 billion) to build an advanced chip packaging plant in South Korea to meet the surging demand for storage chips related to AI [1] - The US government recorded a fiscal deficit of $145 billion in December 2025, a 67% year - on - year increase, setting a record high for that month [1] - Wall Street analysts believe that Trump's probability of winning will increase if the ruling is postponed to late February, and the current betting market shows his win - rate is 28 - 32% [1] Global Economic Logic - The US's actions such as seizing Venezuela's oil and trying to buy Greenland have disrupted the global political order. The Fed's uncertainty is expected to peak from July to November 2026, and there may be a trend of "fleeing US assets" [2] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, bought $40 billion in short - term bonds per month, and restarted the expansion of its balance sheet [2] - The decline in Las Vegas gambling revenue is similar to the early warning signal before the 2008 financial crisis [2] - The US released a new National Security Strategy, adjusting its economic relations with China to revitalize its economic autonomy [2] - The Fed's Beige Book shows that consumer K - type differentiation has intensified, with high - income consumers maintaining spending while low - and middle - income families are tightening their belts [2] - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points, and the yield of Japan's 10 - year government bonds rose to 2.1% [2] - Google's AI infrastructure leader said the company must double AI computing power every six months and achieve a 1000 - fold increase in the next 4 - 5 years [2] - JPMorgan strategists believe that the construction boom of AI data centers will require at least $5 trillion in the next five years [2] - NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun said China will win the AI competition due to a more favorable regulatory environment and lower energy costs [2] - The US's return to the Monroe Doctrine and global contraction will have a profound and subversive impact on major asset classes [2]