原油油轮年度展望

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The crude - tanker market in 2025 was strong but recently had a sharp correction. The Middle - East–Far East TD3C route's daily rent averaged $57,500, up 64.7% YoY, and seaborne crude demand grew solidly. The supply of the tanker fleet was tight, and sanctions and floating storage were short - term swing factors. The global crude - tanker capacity rose only 0.7%. Mid - term supply is expected to remain tight, with sanctions and storage adding near - term tension. The Venezuelan affair is a short - term negative, but geopolitical risk premium underpins freight fundamentals [1][3]. - The 2026 outlook for the crude - tanker market is volatile but still tilted to the upside. Although freight rates have corrected sharply, global liftings should rebound after the Middle - East Ramadan, and tonnage scarcity due to sanctions will persist. Geopolitical flare - ups can increase market volatility [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - The crude - tanker market soared in 2025H2 and then quickly retreated. The average annual daily hire rate still showed a sharp year - on - year increase. Since September 2025, the market was exceptionally strong, with daily rates peaking at $141,300/day. In 2025, the average VLCC daily charter rate on the Middle East–Far East TD3C route reached $57,491, up 64.7% year - on - year. Since Q4, the market was robust but has fallen rapidly lately. In early January, the VLCC downtrend continued, sliding 36.5% week - on - week, and Suezmax and Aframax rates also turned lower [9][34]. 3.2 Demand - Seaborne crude demand in 2026 is expected to be slightly stronger than in 2025, with global volumes reaching a high - level plateau. In 2025, global crude shipped by sea reached 2.17 billion tonnes, up 4.2% year - on - year. OPEC+ indicated that Q1 2026 output will be flat. The Ukraine conflict has had a limited net impact on Russian crude exports. South American shipments grew 6.1% in 2025, while North America and Africa had modest gains. China's crude - import demand picked up in H2 2025 [12][37]. - Venezuelan exports may face short - term disruptions. In the first eleven months of 2025, Venezuela's crude output stood at 0.93 mb/d, about 0.9% of global supply. Average seaborne exports in 2025 were roughly 0.75 mb/d, equal to 1.7% of world crude trade. China and the US are the main destinations, taking about 50% and 15% respectively. Since Q4 2025, the US has tightened sanctions on Venezuelan oil [13][37]. 3.3 Supply 3.3.1 Fleet Growth and Aging - In 2025, the global crude - tanker fleet grew only 0.7%, and the average age of VLCC reached 13.29 years old. Owners are cautious about ordering new ships due to the net - zero timetable. There are currently 909 VLCCs, totaling 280 million dwt, with 156 on order (17.2% of existing capacity), but near - term deliveries are limited. About one - third of VLCC tonnage is over 15 years old, and the average age will keep rising, reducing fleet productivity [14][38]. 3.3.2 Sanctioned Tanker Fleet and Floating - Storage Tonnage - The share of sanctioned tonnage is approaching 20%. In 2025, the US and EU tightened measures on ships carrying Russian, Venezuelan, or Iranian oil. As of 15 Dec 2025, 1,746 ships were on sanctions lists, with tankers being the dominant segment. The US has shifted from corporate to individual/entity designations, making penalties more precise [18][40]. - Floating storage has fluctuated. A build - up in October lifted spot rates in November, but the total has since fallen back. The global floating - storage count peaked around Week 50, declined into year - end, and edged up again in early January. Far - East floating stocks remain elevated, but the support to freight from stored barrels is waning. Part of Venezuela's output is held afloat, and floating - storage levels should be closely watched in 2026. If crude prices retreat, more tankers could be used for storage, boosting freight rates [19][20][40]. 3.3.3 Ship Speed and Canal Transit - The fleet sailed faster in Q4. The average VLCC speed reached 11.86 kn in December, rising steadily since mid - year, while Aframax speed averaged 10.82 kn, remaining flat. Higher rates encouraged owners to turn ships faster, releasing extra supply, but speeds have edged back recently [23][45]. - Ship volumes passing through the Suez Canal remain low, while Panama Canal traffic is normal. In 2025, the Panama Canal had an average of 85 tanker transits (8.92 million dwt) per month, back to 2023 levels but below 2022. Crude - tanker passages in the Suez Canal totaled 1,950 ships in 2025, down 9.7% vs 2024 and 35.1% vs 2023. If tankers return to the Suez Canal in 2026, it could weigh on freight and cut overall tonne - mile demand [24][45]. 3.4 Venezuela Situation 3.4.1 Shipping Pattern - Venezuelan exports are mainly transported by VLCCs, and 120 tankers regularly call at the country's ports. State - owned PDVSA is the major exporter, shipping from the northern and eastern terminals. These 120 vessels represent 6.3% of the world VLCC fleet, 1.0% of Suezmaxes, 2.0% of Aframaxes, and 2.6% of Panamaxes. Most cargoes go to the Far East, so VLCCs dominate the trade [25][26][46]. 3.4.2 Market Impact - The tanker market will suffer in the short term, but there is uncertainty about the floating capacity and volume. The immediate fall in Venezuelan liftings cuts long - haul VLCC demand, which is a short - term negative. Replacement barrels will come from the Middle East, West Africa, or South America, slightly shortening average hauls. However, the effective shortage of tonnage due to sanctions remains, and the market's risk premium and tight supply fundamentals are intact [30][49]. 3.5 Outlook - Seaborne crude demand is expected to grow steadily. In 2026, global volumes should remain at a high level. OPEC+ output is flat in the near term, and Russian flows are only marginally affected. West - African and North - American liftings have eased seasonally, causing a short lull. The pace of Venezuela's crude/fuel - oil comeback is unclear. High onshore stocks in China and a weaker products crack are slowing import appetite, leading to less spot cargo and downward pressure on freight. Global seaborne - crude growth in 2026 is projected at 1–2%. - Supply is likely to stay tight. The share of sanctioned tonnage is rising, floating storage is increasing, and Ukraine has stepped up strikes on Russian tankers. Fleet growth is minimal, and ageing is reducing operating efficiency. Even if the Russia–Ukraine war ends in 2026, trade - flow shifts will largely persist. A sharper oil - price retreat would increase storage demand and tighten tanker availability further. - In summary, the market will dip in the near term, but 2026 fundamentals remain strong. The Venezuelan affair has reduced long - haul VLCC demand for now, but the timing of volume rebound and its impact on floating storage are uncertain, leaving a geopolitical risk premium. The crude - tanker market is expected to regain strength around March after the current correction [31][32][50].