有?观点：抢出口预期再起，供需改善预期推高基本金属-20260115

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of pre - exporting has resurfaced, and the expectation of supply - demand improvement has pushed up base metals. In the short - to - medium term, the logic of weak US dollar expectation and supply disruption concerns remains unchanged. There are long opportunities in copper, aluminum, and tin, and low - buying opportunities in nickel. In the long term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and the supply of copper, aluminum, and tin may tighten, so their prices are expected to rise [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - Viewpoint: Supply disruptions continue to increase, and copper prices remain high. - Analysis: The US CPI in December showed certain trends; the 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee was set at 0; China's electrolytic copper production increased in December; spot copper had a certain premium; there were strikes at a Chilean copper mine and a delay in the second - phase project of a copper mine in Ecuador. - Logic: Macro - wise, the Fed may continue to be loose, supporting copper prices. On the supply - demand side, copper mine supply is tightening, and refined copper supply is expected to contract. Although demand is currently weak, future supply - demand is expected to be tight. - Outlook: Copper prices are expected to be volatile and bullish [8][9]. Alumina - Viewpoint: The fundamentals are weak, and alumina prices are under pressure and fluctuating. - Analysis: Alumina prices in different regions showed changes on January 14, and the alumina warehouse receipts increased. - Logic: High - cost production capacity has some fluctuations, but the supply contraction is insufficient. The raw material prices are weak, and the cost support is limited. However, as the valuation is low, price fluctuations may increase. - Outlook: Alumina prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend [10]. Aluminum - Viewpoint: Inventory continues to accumulate, and aluminum prices fluctuate at high levels. - Analysis: Aluminum prices and premiums changed on January 14; domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories increased; the electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts on the SHFE increased; the aluminum ingot premium in Japan rose; China's aluminum exports in December 2025 had a certain growth rate. - Logic: Macro - wise, the expectation is positive. On the supply side, there are constraints on medium - term supply. On the demand side, high prices suppress demand, and inventory accumulates. - Outlook: In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and bullish. In the medium term, the supply - demand may turn to shortage, and the price center may rise [13][14]. Aluminum Alloy - Viewpoint: Cost support continues, and the market fluctuates at high levels. - Analysis: The prices of aluminum alloy and related products changed on January 14; an Indonesian electrolytic aluminum project started production. - Logic: Cost support is strong due to tight scrap aluminum supply. Supply is restricted by raw materials and policies, and demand may improve marginally. Inventory shows different trends in different types. - Outlook: In the short and medium terms, prices are expected to be volatile and bullish [15]. Zinc - Viewpoint: The supply - demand fundamentals are still resilient, and zinc prices fluctuate at high levels. - Analysis: Spot zinc premiums in different regions were reported on January 14; zinc inventory decreased slightly; a zinc mine in Australia faced production pressure due to railway damage. - Logic: Macro - wise, the expectation is stable. The zinc ore supply is tight in the short term, and demand is in the off - season. In the short term, zinc prices may remain high and volatile, while in the long term, there is a risk of decline. - Outlook: Zinc prices are expected to be volatile [18][19]. Lead - Viewpoint: Warehouse receipts increased significantly, and the upside space for lead prices is limited. - Analysis: The prices of waste electric vehicle batteries and lead ingots changed on January 14; lead inventory increased; lead consumption was weak. - Logic: The spot premium increased, the supply increased as smelters resumed production, and the demand was seasonally weak. - Outlook: Lead prices are expected to be volatile [20][21]. Nickel - Viewpoint: Policy expectations compete with weak reality, and nickel prices rise again. - Analysis: Nickel warehouse receipts and inventory increased on January 14; Indonesia may approve a certain amount of nickel ore production quota in 2026, and the domestic trade ore price in Indonesia is expected to rise. - Logic: The supply pressure remains, demand is in the off - season, and the policy on nickel ore quotas is uncertain. - Outlook: Nickel prices are expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to policy changes in Indonesia [22][23]. Stainless Steel - Viewpoint: Ferronickel prices continue to rise, and the stainless - steel market surges. - Analysis: Stainless - steel warehouse receipts decreased; spot stainless - steel had a certain premium; ferronickel prices rose; the domestic trade ore price in Indonesia is expected to rise. - Logic: Cost support exists, production may increase slightly in January, but demand is weak, and inventory may accumulate. - Outlook: Stainless - steel prices are expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to policy changes in Indonesia [24]. Tin - Viewpoint: Supply disruptions continue, and tin prices soar. - Analysis: Tin warehouse receipts and positions increased on January 14; the spot tin price rose significantly. - Logic: Supply is restricted in multiple areas, such as Myanmar, Indonesia, and Africa. Demand is expected to increase due to the economic environment and the development of related industries. - Outlook: Tin prices are expected to be volatile and bullish [25][26]. Market Monitoring - Index - Comprehensive Index: The commodity 20 index was 2809.04, up 1.08%; the industrial products index was 2362.72, up 0.62%; the PPI commodity index was 1466.29, up 0.70%. - Sector Index: The non - ferrous metal index on January 14 was 2851.75, with a daily increase of 1.52%, a 5 - day increase of 2.83%, a 1 - month increase of 11.72%, and a year - to - date increase of 6.17% [152][153].