中信期货研究（有?每?报告）：关税预期扰动与地缘风险仍在，铂钯震荡偏强

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it indicates that both platinum and palladium are expected to be "oscillating strongly" [1][2]. Core Viewpoints - Due to concerns about the Fed's independence and escalating geopolitical risks, platinum is expected to oscillate strongly. The supply in South Africa faces power - supply and extreme - weather risks, while demand in the platinum market is in a structural expansion phase [1]. - With tariff - expectation disturbances and rising geopolitical risks, palladium is also expected to oscillate strongly. Although the long - term supply - demand for palladium is loosening, short - term spot shortages and the Fed's potential interest - rate cuts support the price [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Platinum Analysis - On January 14, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 630.65 yuan/gram, with a 3.67% increase [1]. - The main logic for the strong - oscillation outlook is the resurgence of concerns about the Fed's independence and geopolitical risks, and the uncertainty of the US "233" clause on key minerals. In the future, South Africa's supply risks persist, and the demand in the platinum market is expanding in multiple fields [1]. Palladium Analysis - On January 14, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 495.5 yuan/gram, with a 1.60% increase [1]. - The market expected a 50% high - tariff on palladium from the US on January 10, which led to a supply shortage in non - US regions. Although the long - term supply - demand is loosening, short - term spot shortages and Fed's potential rate cuts support the price [1][2]. Index Information - On January 14, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures is not detailed. The special indexes include the Commodity Index (2448.62, +0.96%), Commodity 20 Index (2809.04, +1.08%), Industrial Products Index (2362.72, +0.62%), and PPI Commodity Index (1466.29, +0.70%) [47]. - The non - ferrous metal index on January 14, 2026, had a daily increase of 1.52%, a 5 - day increase of 2.83%, a 1 - month increase of 11.72%, and a year - to - date increase of 6.17% [48].