2026-01-15：五矿期货农产品早报-20260115

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - For sugar, after the northern hemisphere finishes harvesting in February and the negative impact of increased production is mostly realized, international sugar prices may rebound. Currently, the downward space for domestic sugar prices is limited, so it's advisable to wait and see [4]. - For cotton, the January USDA report is neutral. The recent trend of Zhengzhou cotton mainly depends on the domestic situation. Affected by the expected reduction of cotton - planting area in Xinjiang and the better - than - expected downstream operation, the price rose in December. After reaching a high, the short - term volatility increased, and it's recommended to wait for a callback to go long [9]. - For protein meal, the January USDA report is slightly bearish, but the overall balance sheet is better than that of the 2024/2025 season. In China, soybean arrivals and inventory decreased last week, and the oil mill operation rate declined. It's advisable to wait and see in the short term [13]. - For oils and fats, the current fundamental situation is weak due to high production and low exports in palm - oil producing areas and high domestic inventories. However, the long - term outlook is optimistic, and prices may be near the bottom [17]. - For eggs, due to the late Spring Festival, the near - term contracts are strong. But considering the large supply and the possibility of delayed capacity reduction, it's advisable to short on rallies for near - term contracts. For far - term contracts, pay attention to the pressure after over - valuation [20]. - For pigs, low prices and the festival effect stimulate consumption. The spot price rose after the Winter Solstice, driving the futures to rebound. In the short term, the spot price is likely to support the near - term contracts. In the medium term, pay attention to the upside pressure and short on rallies. For far - term contracts, wait for a decline to go long [22]. 3. Summary by Commodity Sugar Market Information - On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded slightly. The closing price of the May contract was 5299 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton or 0.88% from the previous trading day. The new - sugar quotes of Guangxi and Yunnan sugar - making groups, and processing sugar mills also changed to varying degrees. The basis between the Guangxi spot price and the Zhengzhou sugar main contract was 21 yuan/ton [2]. - In the first half of December, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 254,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.8%; the cumulative sugar production was 40.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.86%. The sugar exports in December were 2.913 million tons, an increase of 80,000 tons compared with the same period last year. As of January 7, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 44, and the waiting sugar volume was 1.5823 million tons [3]. Strategy Viewpoint - Currently, the raw sugar price has fallen below the support of the Brazilian ethanol conversion price. There is a possibility that the proportion of sugar cane used for sugar production will be reduced after the new sugar - crushing season in Brazil starts in April this year. Wait for the northern hemisphere to finish harvesting in February, and then international sugar prices may rebound. The supply of imported sugar in China is gradually decreasing, and the downward space for sugar prices is limited in the short term. It's advisable to wait and see [4]. Cotton Market Information - On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price was strongly volatile. The closing price of the May contract was 14,810 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton or 0.34% from the previous trading day. The China Cotton Price Index 3128B was 15,970 yuan/ton, up 187 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The basis between the index and the main contract was 1160 yuan/ton [6]. - The January USDA report predicts that the global cotton production in the 2025/2026 season will be 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons compared with the December forecast and an increase of 200,000 tons compared with the previous season. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is 62.63%. Brazil's production is expected to remain at 4.08 million tons; India's production is reduced to 5.12 million tons; and China's production is increased to 7.51 million tons [6]. - Brazil exported 450,000 tons of raw cotton in December, an increase of 100,000 tons year - on - year and 50,000 tons month - on - month. The export volume to China was 146,000 tons. As of January 1, the cumulative export sales of US cotton in the current year were 1.5425 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 239,100 tons [8]. - As of January 9, the spinning mill operating rate was 64.7%, the same as the previous week and 7.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.57 million tons, an increase of 290,000 tons year - on - year [8]. Strategy Viewpoint - The January USDA report is neutral, and the recent trend of Zhengzhou cotton mainly depends on the domestic situation. Affected by the expected reduction of cotton - planting area in Xinjiang and the better - than - expected downstream operation, the price rose in December. After reaching a high, the short - term volatility increased. It's advisable to wait for a callback to go long [9]. Protein Meal Market Information - On Wednesday, the protein meal futures price fell. The closing price of the May soybean meal contract was 2751 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton or 0.36% from the previous trading day; the closing price of the May rapeseed meal contract was 2289 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton or 1.08% from the previous trading day. The spot prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Dongguan and Huangpu also changed [11]. - The January USDA report predicts that the global soybean production in the 2025/2026 season will be 425.67 million tons, an increase of 3.13 million tons compared with the December forecast and a decrease of 1.48 million tons compared with the previous season. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is 29.4%. The production of the United States, Brazil, and Argentina also has different changes. The US export volume is slightly reduced [12]. - As of January 9, the arrival volume of domestic sample soybeans was 1.52 million tons, a decrease of 730,000 tons compared with the previous week. The port inventory was 8.03 million tons, a decrease of 210,000 tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 310,000 tons year - on - year. The operating rate of sample soybean oil mills was 49.5%, 8.12 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The soybean meal inventory of sample oil mills was 930,000 tons, a decrease of 135,000 tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 370,000 tons year - on - year [12]. Strategy Viewpoint - The January USDA report data is slightly bearish, but the overall balance sheet is better than that of the 2024/2025 season. In China, soybean arrivals and inventory decreased last week, and the oil mill operation rate declined. It's advisable to wait and see in the short term [13]. Oils and Fats Market Information - On Wednesday, the oils and fats futures prices continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the May soybean oil contract was 7986 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton or 0.18% from the previous trading day; the closing price of the May palm oil contract was 8748 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton or 0.34% from the previous trading day; the closing price of the May rapeseed oil contract was 8949 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan/ton or 0.75% from the previous trading day. The spot prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil also changed [15]. - The January USDA report estimates that the US soybean oil consumption is 1.32 million tons, a decrease of 0.249 million tons compared with the December estimate and an increase of 1 million tons compared with the previous year. India's total vegetable oil imports in December were 1.38 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons compared with November. Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of December was 3.05 million tons, an increase of 7.56% compared with the previous month. The production was 1.83 million tons, a decrease of 5.46% compared with the previous month. The exports were 1.32 million tons, an increase of 8.52% compared with the previous month [16]. - From January 1 - 10, 2026, the palm oil production in Malaysia decreased by 20.49% month - on - month. As of January 9, the domestic inventory of three major oils and fats was 2.08 million tons, an increase of 0.1586 million tons year - on - year and a decrease of 0.0702 million tons compared with the previous week [16]. Strategy Viewpoint - Currently, high production and low exports in palm - oil producing areas lead to high inventory, and the domestic inventory of three major oils and fats is also at a relatively high level, so the current fundamental situation is weak. However, the long - term outlook is optimistic, and prices may be near the bottom [17]. Eggs Market Information - The national egg price was stable with some increases yesterday. The average price in the main production areas rose 0.02 yuan to 3.46 yuan/jin. The egg supply was normal, and the downstream demand was relatively normal, but some were hesitant about high - priced products. It's expected that the national egg price will be stable in most areas today with some increases [19]. Strategy Viewpoint - Due to the late Spring Festival, the near - term contracts are strong. But considering the large supply and the possibility of delayed capacity reduction, it's advisable to short on rallies for near - term contracts. For far - term contracts, pay attention to the pressure after over - valuation [20]. Pigs Market Information - The domestic pig price was mainly stable yesterday, with some slight fluctuations. The average price in Henan rose 0.03 yuan to 12.99 yuan/kg, and that in Sichuan remained at 12.88 yuan/kg. The breeding side was resistant to price cuts, but the poor sales of white - striped pigs by the slaughtering side restricted the price increase. It's expected that the national pig price will be mainly stable today, with slight increases in some northern areas and slight decreases in some eastern areas [21]. Strategy Viewpoint - Low prices and the festival effect stimulate consumption. The spot price rose after the Winter Solstice, driving the futures to rebound. In the short term, the spot price is likely to support the near - term contracts. In the medium term, pay attention to the upside pressure and short on rallies. For far - term contracts, wait for a decline to go long [22].