Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Report's Core View - For the stock index, at the beginning of the year, incremental funds entered the market, the margin trading scale increased significantly, and the market trading volume quickly expanded. In the long - term, policies support the capital market. In the short - term, focus on the market rhythm and adopt the strategy of buying on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, the market's improved economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but the sustainability of economic recovery needs to be observed. In the first quarter, the bond market is expected to fluctuate weakly due to factors such as the stock market's spring rally, government bond supply, and interest rate cut expectations [7]. - For precious metals, the current international gold price is rising steadily, and the silver price is rising rapidly with significant volatility. It is recommended to hold existing long positions, and there are significant risks in opening new long or short positions [8]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metal prices are expected to fluctuate widely. For example, copper prices are supported by tight supply at the mine end, aluminum prices are affected by overseas low inventory and domestic downstream demand, and nickel prices are constrained by oversupply pressure but supported by macro - factors [12][14][18]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom, iron ore prices are expected to oscillate at a relatively high level, and the prices of coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate in the current range [32][34][38]. - For energy and chemicals, rubber can be considered with a neutral strategy, oil prices can be traded with a low - buying and high - selling strategy, and the strategies for other chemicals vary according to their fundamentals [54][56]. - For agricultural products, the short - term trend of hog prices is expected to be stable with partial fluctuations, egg prices may have different trends in the near and far months, and the prices of other agricultural products are also affected by supply and demand and other factors [78][79][81]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - financial Stock Index - Market Information: Three departments held a symposium on new energy vehicle enterprises, Shanghai issued an action plan for high - level autonomous driving, the central bank carried out a 900 - billion - yuan repurchase operation, and tax rebates were offered for housing purchases [2]. - Strategy: Buy on dips in the short - term [4]. Treasury Bonds - Market Information: The prices of main contracts showed different changes. The central bank carried out a 900 - billion - yuan repurchase operation, and China's export and import data in December 2025 were positive. The central bank's net investment was 212.2 billion yuan [5]. - Strategy: The bond market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the first quarter [7]. Precious Metals - Market Information: Gold and silver prices rose, and there were differences in the statements of Fed officials. US PPI and retail sales data were released [8]. - Strategy: Hold existing long positions, and avoid opening new long or short positions [8]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Market Information: The domestic equity market fluctuated, copper prices rose, LME copper inventory increased, and the import loss of Shanghai copper expanded [10]. - Strategy: Copper prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term [12]. Aluminum - Market Information: The domestic spot market weakened, aluminum prices fluctuated, and inventory increased [13]. - Strategy: Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term [14]. Zinc - Market Information: Zinc prices rose, and inventory and other data were released [15]. - Strategy: Zinc prices are expected to oscillate widely following the non - ferrous sector [15]. Lead - Market Information: Lead prices rose, and inventory and other data were released [16]. - Strategy: Lead prices are expected to oscillate widely following the non - ferrous sector [16]. Nickel - Market Information: Nickel prices fluctuated, and the prices of raw materials such as nickel ore and nickel iron were stable [17]. - Strategy: Nickel prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [18]. Tin - Market Information: Tin prices rose to the daily limit, supply and demand and inventory data changed [19][20]. - Strategy: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate following market sentiment, and it is recommended to wait and see [21]. Carbonate Lithium - Market Information: The price of carbonate lithium decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed [22]. - Strategy: Be cautious due to the risk of a significant correction, and it is recommended to wait and see or take a light position [23]. Alumina - Market Information: The price of alumina rose, and inventory and other data changed [24]. - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see, and it is not cost - effective to chase long positions. Consider shorting near - month contracts on rallies [25]. Stainless Steel - Market Information: Stainless steel prices rose, and inventory decreased [26]. - Strategy: Stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: Cast aluminum alloy prices fluctuated, and inventory decreased [28]. - Strategy: Cast aluminum alloy prices are supported by cost and supply factors, and may strengthen further [29]. Black Building Materials Steel - Market Information: Steel prices fluctuated, and inventory and other data changed [31]. - Strategy: Steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom, and attention should be paid to market rumors and policy impacts [32]. Iron Ore - Market Information: Iron ore prices rose, and supply, demand, and inventory data changed [33]. - Strategy: Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate at a relatively high level in the short - term, and attention should be paid to steel mills' restocking and iron - making production rhythms [34]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market Information: Coking coal prices rose, and coke prices fell. Spot prices and inventory data changed [35]. - Strategy: Coking coal and coke prices are expected to oscillate in the current range, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and policy impacts [38]. Glass and Soda Ash - Market Information: Glass prices were stable, and inventory decreased. Soda ash prices rose, and inventory increased [39][41]. - Strategy: For glass, it is recommended to wait and see due to high inventory. For soda ash, the market is weak and lacks substantial positive support [40][41]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market Information: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices rose slightly [42]. - Strategy: The market is affected by market sentiment and cost factors. Pay attention to manganese ore supply and "dual - carbon" policy impacts [44]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Market Information: Industrial silicon prices rose, and polysilicon prices fell. Supply, demand, and inventory data changed [45][47]. - Strategy: Industrial silicon prices are expected to be under pressure, and polysilicon prices are expected to be weak in the short - term. Pay attention to production plans and policy impacts [46][49]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - Market Information: Rubber prices fluctuated, and supply and demand data changed [51][52]. - Strategy: Adopt a neutral strategy. If the RU2605 contract falls below 16,000, switch to a short - term short strategy [54]. Crude Oil - Market Information: Crude oil and refined oil prices rose, and inventory data showed accumulation [55]. - Strategy: Do not be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. Adopt a low - buying and high - selling strategy and wait and see for now [56]. Methanol - Market Information: Methanol prices changed, and regional spot prices and MTO profits changed [57]. - Strategy: Methanol has limited downward space and is suitable for buying on dips [58]. Urea - Market Information: Urea prices rose, and regional spot prices and basis data changed [59][60]. - Strategy: Take profits on rallies due to expected fundamental bearish factors [61]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Information: Pure benzene prices were stable, and styrene prices changed. Supply, demand, and inventory data changed [62]. - Strategy: It is possible to go long on non - integrated styrene profits before the first quarter [63]. PVC - Market Information: PVC prices fell, and supply, demand, and inventory data changed [64]. - Strategy: Adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies in the medium - term due to strong supply and weak demand [65]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: Ethylene glycol prices rose, and supply, demand, and inventory data changed [66]. - Strategy: The supply - demand pattern needs to be improved by increasing production cuts. Be cautious of rebound risks in the short - term [67]. PTA - Market Information: PTA prices fell, and supply, demand, and inventory data changed [68]. - Strategy: PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory accumulation stage after short - term inventory reduction. Pay attention to mid - term long - buying opportunities [69]. p - Xylene - Market Information: PX prices fell, and supply, demand, and inventory data changed [70][71]. - Strategy: PX is expected to maintain a small inventory accumulation pattern before the maintenance season and follow crude oil for mid - term long - buying opportunities [72]. Polyethylene (PE) - Market Information: PE prices rose, and supply, demand, and inventory data changed [73]. - Strategy: Go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips as the long - term contradiction shifts to production mismatch [74]. Polypropylene (PP) - Market Information: PP prices rose, and supply, demand, and inventory data changed [75]. - Strategy: The PP price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year as the supply - surplus pattern changes [76]. Agricultural Products Hogs - Market Information: Hog prices were stable with partial fluctuations [78]. - Strategy: The short - term spot price has limited downward momentum, and the mid - term supply is large. Consider short - selling on rallies and long - buying on dips in the long - term [79]. Eggs - Market Information: Egg prices were stable with some increases [80]. - Strategy: Short - sell near - month contracts on rallies and be cautious of over - valued far - month contracts [81]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Market Information: Protein meal prices fell, and supply, demand, and inventory data changed [82]. - Strategy: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude in the short - term [83]. Oils and Fats - Market Information: Oil prices fluctuated, and supply, demand, and inventory data changed [84][85]. - Strategy: The current fundamentals are weak, but the long - term outlook is optimistic, and oil prices may be near the bottom [86]. Sugar - Market Information: Sugar prices rebounded, and supply, demand, and inventory data changed [87][88]. - Strategy: Wait for the international sugar price to rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest in February. Temporarily wait and see in the domestic market [89]. Cotton - Market Information: Cotton prices rose, and supply, demand, and inventory data changed [90][91]. - Strategy: The 1 - month USDA report is neutral. Wait for a pullback to go long on Zhengzhou cotton [92].
宏观金融类：文字早评2026/01/15星期四-20260115
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-01-15 00:58