新工业双周报(12/29-01/11):穆迪预测未来五年全球数据中心投资至少达 3 万亿美元;PJM 预计 2040 年夏季用电量将增加至 220GW-20260115

Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong investment outlook for the data center sector, predicting global investments to reach at least $3 trillion over the next five years, driven by AI and major cloud providers [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid expansion of data center capacity driven by AI, with major U.S. companies expected to spend nearly $400 billion in 2025, with an additional $200 billion anticipated in the following two years [2][8]. - The report notes that the cost of supplying power to data centers has reached $6.5 billion, accounting for 40% of total auction costs in the latest capacity auction by PJM [2]. - The Texas power reliability council (ERCOT) has seen a surge in large load interconnection requests, increasing by approximately 300% to over 233 GW, with over 70% attributed to data centers [2]. - The report discusses the challenges faced by the energy market, including the freezing of offshore wind power projects, leading to significant daily losses for developers [2]. - MISO plans to invest about $1.2 billion in a new transmission line in Wisconsin as part of a long-term $22 billion transmission plan to strengthen the grid [2]. Summary by Sections Global Infrastructure and Construction Equipment - Moody's forecasts that global data center investments will reach at least $3 trillion over the next five years, primarily driven by AI and major cloud providers [2][8]. - The report emphasizes the evolving financing models in capital markets, with institutional investors increasingly participating in lending during the construction phase [8]. - The report also highlights the rising construction costs due to increased prices for critical inputs like construction equipment and GPUs, which are expected to further elevate the costs of new data centers [8]. Global Electrical and Intelligent Equipment - The gas turbine price index increased by 5.49% year-on-year and 2.1% month-on-month as of September 2025, indicating a stable demand in the market [15]. - The report notes that the U.S. gas turbine market's future growth will be driven by re-industrialization and the development of AI data centers [17]. Global Energy Industry - The average retail electricity price in the U.S. as of October 2025 was 13.63 cents/kWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5% across various sectors [4]. - The report indicates that the U.S. electricity demand growth forecast has been revised upwards, with expectations of a 15.8% increase by 2029 [22]. Global New Materials - The report mentions that the global uranium spot price was $81.55 per pound as of December 2025, reflecting an 8% increase month-on-month and a 12% increase year-on-year [4]. Key Company Insights - The report suggests focusing on AI power operators such as Entergy, Talen Energy, and Constellation Energy, as well as energy equipment companies like Oklo and NuScale Power [5]. - It highlights the need for infrastructure improvements in the U.S. energy grid to support industrial return, AI data center construction, and decarbonization efforts [5]. - The report also points out that the demand for high-voltage transmission lines is expected to grow, with companies like Hitachi and Hyundai Electric being key players in this sector [5].