国新国证期货早报-20260115

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on January 14, 2026 - Stock Indexes: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.31% to 4126.09, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.56% to 14248.60, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.82% to 3349.14. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 39872 billion yuan, an increase of 2881 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - Futures Indexes: The CSI 300 Index closed at 4741.93, down 19.1 [2]. 2. Commodity Futures 2.1 Coke and Coking Coal - Price Movements: On January 14, the weighted coke index closed at 1740.1, down 22.2, and the weighted coking coal index closed at 1200.2 yuan, down 17.4 [2][3]. - Influencing Factors: Coke factories' inventory decreased by 6.04%. The resumption of iron - making production has stabilized coal and coke demand. However, there is a contradiction between market sentiment boosted by "industrial control" information and the inability of short - term fundamental data to meet expectations. For coking coal, supply and demand both increased, and the mine clean coal inventory increased by 0.57%. Iron water production rose by 0.91 million tons [4]. 2.2 Zhengzhou Sugar (Zheng Sugar) - Price Movements: Affected by the decline in sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of December, the US sugar market stabilized on Tuesday. The Zheng Sugar 2605 contract rose on Wednesday but slightly declined at night due to long - position liquidation [4]. - Production Data: In the first half of December, sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 28.8% year - on - year to 254,240 tons, and the sugarcane crushing volume decreased by 32.8% year - on - year to 5.92 million tons. Since the start of the crushing season, the cumulative crushing volume was 598.19 million tons, a 2.36% year - on - year decrease [4]. 2.3 Rubber - Price Movements: Boosted by the rise in crude oil prices, Shanghai rubber rose on Wednesday but closed lower at night with narrow - range fluctuations [4]. - Production and Inventory Data: In November 2025, Malaysia's natural rubber production was 20,891 tons, a 29.6% decrease from October, and the total inventory decreased by 17.3% to 120,208 tons [4]. 2.4 Soybean Meal - International Market: On January 14, the CBOT soybean market closed up. The US Department of Agriculture overestimated US soybean production but lowered export prospects and raised Brazil's soybean harvest forecast. China's continuous demand supported US soybeans. Brazil's soybean export volume in January is expected to reach 3.73 million tons [6]. - Domestic Market: On January 14, the main soybean meal contract M2505 closed at 2751 yuan/ton, a 0.36% decline. High inventory restricts price increases. Future focus should be on South American weather and soybean arrivals [6]. 2.5 Live Pigs - Price Movements: On January 14, the main live pig contract LH2603 closed at 12010 yuan/ton, a 1.82% increase [6]. - Supply and Demand: In the first half of January, the supply of medium - and large - sized pigs decreased slightly. However, there is still a possibility of early slaughter before the Spring Festival. Seasonal consumption is ongoing, but there is a short - term "gap" in consumption. Pay attention to the inventory of breeding sows, the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig farms, and the demand during the pickling season [6]. 2.6 Palm Oil - Price Movements: On January 14, the palm oil futures price fluctuated and adjusted. The main contract P2605 closed at 8748, a 0.34% decrease [6]. - Policy Information: Indonesia will raise the palm oil export special tax to 12.5% on March 1. The future implementation of the B50 blending policy depends on the price difference between crude oil and crude palm oil [6]. 2.7 Shanghai Copper - Price Movements: On January 14, Shanghai copper opened at 103780 yuan/ton, closed at 104120 yuan/ton, a 0.85% increase. Trading volume and open interest increased, indicating significant capital inflow [6]. - Influencing Factors: The slowdown of US core inflation and the expectation of interest rate cuts in the market, as well as China's policy of stabilizing growth, boosted market sentiment. Supply was restricted due to smelter maintenance, and demand from the new energy sector and pre - holiday stocking supported prices [6]. 2.8 Logs - Price Movements: The main log contract 2603 closed at 779.5 on January 14, with a daily reduction of 108 lots. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged [7]. - Market Outlook: There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship. Future attention should be paid to spot prices, import data, inventory changes, and macro - market sentiment [7]. 2.9 Iron Ore - Price Movements: On January 14, the main iron ore contract 2605 closed up 0.06% at 821 yuan. Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments declined, port inventory continued to accumulate, and steel mills' replenishment demand increased [7]. - Market Outlook: The short - term iron ore price is expected to fluctuate [7]. 2.10 Asphalt - Price Movements: On January 14, the main asphalt contract 2603 closed up 1.38% at 3168 yuan. Supply remained low, inventory increased, and downstream demand decreased significantly [7]. - Market Outlook: Supported by crude oil costs, the short - term asphalt price is expected to fluctuate [7]. 2.11 Cotton - Price Movements: On Wednesday night, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 14780 yuan/ton. Cotton inventory increased by 426 lots compared to the previous trading day. Downstream spinning mills purchase as needed [7]. 2.12 Steel - Price Movements: On January 14, rb2605 closed at 3162 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3306 yuan/ton. High production costs supported steel prices, but weak downstream demand restricted price increases [7]. - Market Outlook: The short - term steel price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [7]. 2.13 Alumina - Price Movements: On January 14, ao2605 closed at 2800 yuan/ton. The domestic alumina production capacity remained high, and the market supply was in surplus, putting pressure on price increases [7]. - Market Conditions: Ore trading was light, and downstream profit margins were compressed, leading to a wait - and - see attitude. Spot prices continued to fall, and the trading atmosphere improved slightly [7]. 2.14 Shanghai Aluminum - Price Movements: On January 14, al2603 closed at 24595 yuan/ton. The market followed the trend of precious metals. Supply was normal, and social inventory continued to accumulate [7]. - Market Conditions: Downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs, and the demand in some fields was under pressure [7].