Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various sectors including macro - finance, black commodities, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals, offering trading strategies and outlooks for different futures products based on market conditions, policies, and supply - demand dynamics [16][19][25] Summary by Directory Macro News - The margin ratio for margin trading is raised from 80% to 100%, and the policy of tax refund for home - swapping is extended to the end of 2027. Several top - valued tech firms are preparing for IPOs. China's 2025 foreign trade grows 3.8% year - on - year. The central bank will conduct a 900 - billion - yuan 6 - month repurchase operation. Three departments regulate the new energy vehicle industry. The US imposes a 25% tariff on some semiconductor imports. Tesla changes its FSD business model. The Fed's economic situation improves, and there are different views on interest rate adjustments among Fed officials. US economic data shows mixed trends, and OPEC maintains its 2026 oil demand growth forecast and releases the 2027 forecast [9][10][11] Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - On January 14, A - shares fluctuated, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.31%. The increase in margin ratio signals a market cool - down. If the index fails to form a counter - enveloping bearish line with further volume, it may enter an adjustment phase. Short - term trading should focus on volume and price, and consider taking profits [16] Treasury Bond Futures - The money market has become looser. The adjustment of margin ratio and the 900 - billion - yuan 6 - month repurchase operation are announced. With the expected decline in interest - rate cut and the upward shift of the capital center, the strategy of flattening the yield curve is maintained [17] Black Commodities Steel and Ore - Policy - wise, there are no new demand - side policies, and supply - side policy interference is unlikely. Fundamentally, steel demand shows off - season pressure, but short - term contradictions are not significant. Long - term downstream demand for steel is weak, except for some consumption of coil products. Iron ore supply shows a port inventory increase, and demand is supported. Steel and ore are expected to fluctuate in the short term [19][20] Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal futures prices rebound due to supply disturbances. In the short term, double - coking prices may fluctuate upwards, but the potential negative feedback from weak steel demand and the limited profit of the steel industry may restrict the upward space [22] Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash prices fluctuate with the market atmosphere. Supply is at a high level, and new capacity progress is awaited. It is advisable to wait and see. Glass prices are recommended to be held by bulls, and attention should be paid to the implementation of cold - repair [23] Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Zinc - As of January 12, domestic zinc inventories decrease. Zinc prices are supported by external markets and inventory trends. However, downstream procurement is weak. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can short at high prices [25][26] Lead - As of January 12, lead inventories increase. Before delivery, inventories are expected to rise further. After delivery, supply pressure will increase, and price upward space may be limited. It is recommended to wait and see [27][28] Lithium Carbonate - Driven by the expectation of battery export rush, demand is better than expected. In the short term, it will operate in a high - level shock. Attention should be paid to the risk of sharp fluctuations [29] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, lacking upward drivers. Polysilicon will fluctuate weakly, waiting for the rectification measures on January 20. For industrial silicon, downstream demand has short - term support, but long - term supply pressure remains. For polysilicon, the "anti - involution" policy is being corrected, and the market is in a vacuum period of policy and industry game [30][31] Agricultural Products Cotton - Cotton is in a short - term consolidation state due to the contradiction between short - term supply surplus and long - term supply contraction expectations, as well as pre - holiday restocking and declining production. Short - term trading is recommended [32][33] Sugar - Domestic sugar is in a season of both supply and demand growth, with prices fluctuating. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading in the low - price range [34][35] Eggs - The current inventory of laying hens is high. After the Spring Festival, egg prices may weaken. However, if the price increase is due to supply reduction, the situation needs to be re - evaluated [37] Apples - The apple market is in a game between supply support and demand restraint. Prices are likely to fluctuate within a range, and high - quality products will remain firm. The market may turn stronger during the Spring Festival [38][39] Corn - The corn market has large differences. Spot prices are stable to strong, and futures prices are weak. The price may fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to the release of grain sales in March [40] Red Dates - The red date market is in a consumption peak season, but the price lacks upward momentum. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the sales rhythm and buyer sentiment [41] Pigs - In the first half of January, pig consumption lacks a significant boost. From the middle of the month, the supply may increase, and the spot price is likely to decline. Futures contracts should be shorted at high prices [42] Energy Chemicals Crude Oil - Tensions in Iran continue to heat up, and the market is worried about supply disruptions. Although there is a supply surplus, geopolitical factors support oil prices in the short term [44] Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices follow crude oil prices, with marginal improvement in supply and demand. The short - term focus is on the geopolitical situation in the US and Russia [46] Plastics - Polyolefins have large supply pressure and weak demand, but upstream losses may support a small - scale rebound. An oscillatory approach is recommended [47] Rubber - Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate. There is support from overseas raw material prices, and attention should be paid to short - term buying opportunities on dips [47] Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber prices rise due to cost support. Caution is needed when chasing high prices, and it is advisable to wait and see if there is no position [48][49] Methanol - The supply - demand situation of methanol is improving. Although there is a risk of inventory accumulation, the long - term outlook is positive. Long - term contracts can be considered for a slightly long - biased allocation [50] Caustic Soda - The adjustment of export tax - refund policy has a negative impact on caustic soda futures. Spot prices are weak, and futures prices are under pressure [51] Asphalt - Asphalt prices are expected to fluctuate more due to raw material factors. The future focus is on the price bottom after the winter - storage game [52] Polyester Industry Chain - The polyester industry chain is cost - driven in the short term. Attention can be paid to the positive spread opportunities between May and September contracts of PX and PTA [53] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - Affected by the geopolitical conflict in Iran, LPG prices rise. Supported by high costs and demand, it has some rebound momentum. It is recommended to wait and see [54] Urea - Urea futures drive the spot market. Spot prices are stable to rising, and futures prices are rising unilaterally. Attention is paid to the improvement of spot market liquidity [55]
中泰期货晨会纪要-20260115
Zhong Tai Qi Huo·2026-01-15 01:16