国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：农产品-20260115

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Core Viewpoints of the Report - Palm oil: Doubts about Indonesia's B50 policy, and the POGO is expected to shrink [2][4] - Soybean oil: Limited momentum for US soybeans, and attention should be paid to the spill - over effects of crude oil [2][4] - Soybean meal: Range - bound, waiting for the progress of the China - Canada trade event [2][8] - Soybean No.1: Rebound and fluctuate [2][8] - Corn: Focus on the spot market [2][11] - Sugar: Mainly show a weak trend [2][15] - Cotton: Continue the adjustment trend [2][19] - Eggs: Spot market is profitable, and sentiment for far - month contracts is weakening [2][25] - Hogs: Demand expectations are priced in ahead of time [2][28] - Peanuts: Fluctuate within a range [2][32] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Palm oil and Soybean oil - Fundamental data: Palm oil's day - session closing price was 8,748 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.34%, and night - session closing price was 8,644 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.19%. Soybean oil's day - session closing price was 8,000 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.18%, and night - session closing price was 7,982 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.22% [4] - Macro and industry news: Indonesia cancelled the plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio to 50% this year, maintaining the current 40% palm - based fuel and 60% diesel ratio. It will also raise the export levy on crude palm oil from 10% to 12.5% starting from March 1. Analysts believe that the upward catalyst for crude palm oil prices may have disappeared, and the plan to raise export taxes may further suppress prices [5][6] - Trend strength: Palm oil and soybean oil both have a trend strength of - 1 [7] Soybean meal and Soybean No.1 - Fundamental data: DCE Soybean No.1 2605's day - session closing price was 4323 yuan/ton with a decline of 31 yuan (- 0.71%), and night - session closing price was 4332 yuan/ton with an increase of 3 yuan (+ 0.07%). DCE Soybean meal 2605's day - session closing price was 2751 yuan/ton with a decline of 25 yuan (- 0.90%), and night - session closing price was 2754 yuan/ton with an increase of 5 yuan (+ 0.18%) [8] - Macro and industry news: On January 14, CBOT soybeans had a technical rebound. Private exporters reported selling 33.4 tons of soybeans to China in 2025/26. China's soybean imports in December 2025 were 804 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%, and the total imports in 2025 were estimated to be 111.8 million tons, an increase of 6.5%. However, Brazil's record soybean harvest may reduce China's demand for US soybeans [10] - Trend strength: Both soybean meal and soybean No.1 have a trend strength of 0 [10] Corn - Fundamental data: The closing price of C2603 was 2,272 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.70% during the day and 2,282 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.44% at night. The closing price of C2605 was 2,275 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.22% during the day and 2,278 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.13% at night [12] - Macro and industry news: Northern corn bulk shipping port prices were basically flat, and Guangdong Shekou prices were also stable. Northeast deep - processing corn prices were stable with a slight increase, while North China corn prices declined slightly [13] - Trend strength: Corn has a trend strength of 0 [14] Sugar - Fundamental data: The raw sugar price was 14.68 cents/pound with a decline of 0.21. The mainstream spot price was 5350 yuan/ton with an increase of 10 yuan. The futures main - contract price was 5299 yuan/ton with an increase of 46 yuan [15] - Macro and industry news: As of December 31, 2025/26, India's sugar production increased by 24% year - on - year, and it had signed 180,000 tons of export contracts. Brazil exported 2.91 million tons in December, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. China imported 440,000 tons of sugar in November (- 90,000 tons). CAOC expects China's sugar production in 2025/26 to be 11.7 million tons, consumption to be 15.7 million tons, and imports to be 5 million tons. ISO expects a global sugar surplus of 1.63 million tons in 2025/26 [15][16][17] - Trend strength: Sugar has a trend strength of - 1 [18] Cotton - Fundamental data: The closing price of CF2605 was 14,810 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.34% during the day and 14780 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.20% at night. The closing price of CY2603 was 20,835 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.34% during the day and 20820 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.07% at night [19] - Macro and industry news: Cotton spot trading was generally light, and the overall price of pure - cotton yarn was stable with a slight decline. ICE cotton futures continued to fluctuate slightly [20][21] - Trend strength: Cotton has a trend strength of 0 [22] Eggs - Fundamental data: The closing price of eggs 2602 was 2,958 yuan/500 kilograms with a decline of 0.94%, and the closing price of eggs 2603 was 3,007 yuan/500 kilograms with a decline of 0.56% [25] - Trend strength: Eggs have a trend strength of 0 [26] Hogs - Fundamental data: The Henan spot price was 13030 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price was 13000 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong spot price was 13260 yuan/ton. The price of hogs 2603 was 12010 yuan/ton, hogs 2605 was 12260 yuan/ton, and hogs 2607 was 12885 yuan/ton [29] - Trend strength: Hogs have a trend strength of - 1 [30] Peanuts - Fundamental data: The price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 9,100 yuan/ton, Henan Baisha common peanuts was 7,200 yuan/ton. The closing price of PK603 was 7,844 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.10%, and PK605 was 7,860 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.10% [32] - Macro and industry news: In the spot market, the prices in Henan, Jilin, Liaoning, and Shandong were generally stable with a slight decline in some areas [33] - Trend strength: Peanuts have a trend strength of 0 [34]