伊朗局势动荡?撑油价，化?春季检修预期对期价有?撑

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical risks from the Iran situation continue to support crude oil prices, and the chemical sector should be viewed with a volatile mindset [2][3][4]. - The chemical sector is currently boosted by the strong trends of coal and oil prices, with limited room for significant adjustments. Even over - valued varieties are likely to trade in a volatile range. Spring maintenance by refineries and chemical enterprises will limit the supply increase, and the positive supply - demand outlook for PX and PTA in the first half of the year still supports futures prices [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - Crude Oil: Geopolitical factors are continuously disturbing, and attention should be paid to risks from Iran. The supply pressure persists, but geopolitical premiums may fluctuate, so it is expected to trade in a volatile range [4][9]. - Asphalt: The asphalt futures price is in an over - valued range and trading in a volatile manner. In the long - term, the valuation is expected to decline [4][10][11]. - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The situation between the US and Iran has escalated, leading to a sharp rise in high - sulfur fuel oil. In the long - term, the expected increase in Venezuelan oil production will put pressure on prices, but short - term support comes from the US - Iran conflict [4][10][12]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price is rising in a volatile manner. Although it faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand and substitution by green energy, its current low valuation means it will follow crude oil price movements [4][12]. - Methanol: The expectation of inventory reduction in coastal areas has been realized, but there is still uncertainty in the overseas macro - environment. Methanol is expected to be stable with a slight upward trend [4][28]. - Urea: Regional top - dressing demand provides support, and urea is expected to be stable with a slight upward trend. The market may have a narrow upward exploration in the short - term [4][29][30]. - Ethylene Glycol: There are again differences between bulls and bears, and the price lacks directional guidance. It is expected to trade in a range in the short - term, with limited upside due to long - term inventory accumulation pressure [4][22][23]. - PX: There is an expectation of a valuation correction. The price is expected to trade in a range in the short - term, with support around 7000 - 7100 [4][14]. - PTA: The market lacks new drivers, but cost support remains. It is expected to trade in a range in the short - term, with support around 5000 - 5100 [4][15][16]. - Short - Fiber: Demand lacks sustainability, and it is trading in a range. The price will follow the movement of upstream products, with processing fees under some pressure [4][24][25]. - Bottle Chip: Supply continues to be compressed, and there is an expectation of processing fee repair. The absolute price will follow raw materials, and the long PR03 short TA03 position can be held [4][26][27]. - Propylene: Supply has tightened, and PL is expected to have a cautious rebound [4]. - PP: The number of maintenance operations has slightly decreased, and the upside space for PP is limited [4][34]. - Plastic: Boosted by raw materials and the macro - environment, plastic is slightly strengthening [4][33]. - Styrene: Tight supply - demand and a good commodity market atmosphere have led to a recent strong and volatile trend. It is expected to remain strong and volatile in the short - term if there is no significant increase in supply or major negative news from crude oil [4][20][21]. - PVC: Short - term "rush - to - export" activities support the price. In the long - term, the market is under pressure due to concerns about the sustainability of export orders and high inventory [4][36]. - Caustic Soda: With a low valuation and weak expectations, caustic soda is trading weakly [4][36][37]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - Inter - period Spreads: Data shows the latest values and changes in inter - period spreads for various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. For example, Brent's M1 - M2 spread is 0.73 with a change of 0.01 [39]. - Basis and Warehouse Receipts: Information on the basis and warehouse receipts of different varieties is provided. For instance, the basis of asphalt is - 68 with a change of - 8, and the number of warehouse receipts is 46450 [40]. - Inter - variety Spreads: The latest values and changes in inter - variety spreads are presented, like the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 363 with a change of - 199 [42]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific summarized data was provided in the content, but it involves monitoring the basis and spreads of various chemicals such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc. 3.3 Index Information - Comprehensive Index: The commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial products index, and PPI commodity index all showed positive growth on January 14, 2026 [282]. - Sector Index: The energy index on January 14, 2026, had a daily increase of 0.87%, a 5 - day increase of 5.90%, a 1 - month increase of 3.18%, and a year - to - date increase of 3.87% [283].