2026年01月15日：期货市场交易指引-20260115

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: The stock index is bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; government bonds are expected to trade in a range [1][5]. - Black Building Materials: Coking coal is suitable for short - term trading; rebar is for range trading; glass is recommended for selling on rallies [1][7][8]. - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper should be held long cautiously at low levels with rolling operations; aluminum requires more observation; nickel suggests waiting or selling on rallies; tin is for range trading; gold is for range trading; silver is expected to be strong; lithium carbonate will trade in a range [1][11][12]. - Energy and Chemicals: PVC adopts a low - buying strategy; caustic soda and soda ash suggest temporary observation; styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are for range trading; polyolefins are expected to be weak and volatile [1][17][19]. - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to adjust in a range; apples are expected to be slightly strong; jujubes are expected to rebound from the bottom [1][26][28]. - Agricultural and Animal Husbandry: For live pigs, short - term contracts should sell on rallies and long - term contracts are cautiously bullish; for eggs, the 02 contract can be hedged on rallies; for corn, short - term chasing highs should be cautious, and long - term there is support at the bottom; for soybean meal, near - term contracts are bullish and far - term contracts are bearish; for oils, soybean and palm oil are stronger than rapeseed oil, and palm oil can be bought [1][29][38]. Core Views The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their current market conditions, including supply - demand relationships, cost factors, policy impacts, and international market trends. It analyzes the short - term and long - term trends of each product, and gives corresponding investment strategies such as buying on dips, selling on rallies, range trading, and temporary observation [1][5][8]. Summary by Category Macro Finance - Stock Index: The US economic data has mixed impacts, and China's foreign trade is improving, but the increase in margin ratio may put pressure on the stock index. It is bullish in the medium to long term, and investors can buy on dips [5]. - Government Bonds: Asset fluctuations are large, and there are short - term trading opportunities. The mid - term situation is unclear. The market should focus on the central bank's press conference on monetary policy, and government bonds are expected to trade in a range [5]. Black Building Materials - Double - Coking: The transportation and procurement are weak, and the port inventory is increasing. It is recommended for short - term trading [7][8]. - Rebar: The price is in the middle range. The supply - demand pattern is seasonally weak, and there are expectations of weakening exports. It is suitable for range trading, and attention should be paid to cash - futures arbitrage opportunities [8]. - Glass: The market is affected by short - term factors such as production line shutdowns and inventory transfers. The fundamental pattern remains unchanged, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [8][9]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: There is a game between macro - bullishness and weak fundamentals. The short - term upward momentum is exhausted, but there is a long - term shortage expectation. It is recommended to hold long cautiously at low levels with rolling operations [11]. - Aluminum: The alumina is in a weak situation, and the policy is uncertain. The aluminum price is under fundamental pressure, and it is recommended to observe more [12]. - Nickel: The nickel ore quota is cut, but the overall supply is still in excess. It is recommended to wait or sell on rallies [13][14]. - Tin: The supply is tight, and the downstream demand is recovering. It is expected to be strong and volatile, and it is suitable for range trading [14]. - Silver and Gold: Due to the weak US economic data and the expectation of interest rate cuts, the prices are expected to be strong. Silver is recommended to hold long, and gold is for range trading [15][16]. - Lithium Carbonate: The supply and demand are in a state of game, and the price is expected to trade in a range [16][17]. Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The supply - demand is weak, but the valuation is low. There are potential policy and cost - side impacts. It is recommended to buy at low levels [17]. - Caustic Soda: The demand is weak, and the supply is under pressure. There is short - term delivery pressure, and it is recommended to observe temporarily [19]. - Styrene: The price has rebounded, but the valuation is high. It is suitable for range trading, and attention should be paid to cost and supply - demand changes [19]. - Rubber: The upstream cost is rising, but the demand is weak. The inventory is increasing, and it is for range trading [20][21]. - Urea: The supply is increasing, and the demand is stable. The inventory is at a low level, and the price is expected to trade in a range [22]. - Methanol: The supply is recovering, and the demand is mixed. The price is expected to trade in a range, with some regions being strong [23][24]. - Polyolefins: The supply is loose, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be weak and volatile [24]. - Soda Ash: The supply is in excess, but the cost support is strong. It is recommended to observe temporarily [26]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: The global cotton supply - demand pattern is improving. The price is in a high - level adjustment, and it is recommended to be cautious in the short term and optimistic in the long term [26]. - Apples: The market is stable, and the price is expected to be slightly strong [28]. - Jujubes: The acquisition in Xinjiang is over, and the price is expected to rebound from the bottom [28]. Agricultural and Animal Husbandry - Live Pigs: The short - term supply - demand may turn loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate. The long - term price increase is limited, and it is recommended to sell on rallies in the short - term and be cautiously bullish in the long - term [29][30]. - Eggs: The short - term price may rise seasonally, but the supply is sufficient. The long - term supply pressure still exists, and it is recommended to hedge on rallies [31][33]. - Corn: The short - term price has selling pressure, and the long - term demand is gradually releasing. It is recommended to be cautious in chasing highs and hedge on rallies [34][36]. - Soybean Meal: The near - term contract is bullish, and the far - term contract is bearish. It is recommended to buy on dips in the near - term and sell on rallies in the far - term [37][38]. - Oils: The short - term trend is expected to be volatile. Palm oil and soybean oil are relatively strong. It is recommended to buy palm oil and pay attention to the China - Canada negotiation results [38][44].