宁证期货今日早评-20260115

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The US economy shows moderate growth and enhanced resilience, reducing the need for interest rate cuts. Industrial demand supports silver, but attention should be paid to the impact of gold fluctuations on silver [1]. - Domestic methanol production is at a high level and rising, while downstream demand is slightly decreasing. Methanol port inventory has significantly decreased, and the spot market performs well. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [2]. - High costs support steel prices, but weak downstream demand restricts price increases. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term [4]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is relatively loose, but the expected winter storage replenishment by steel mills provides some support for ore prices in the short term [4]. - The supply pressure of ferrosilicon is currently not large, but there is a possibility of increased supply pressure in the future. Caution is needed when looking at the upside space of prices [5]. - The national pig price shows mixed trends. Supply - demand game continues, and prices are expected to fluctuate in a range after a short - term increase [5]. - The upper limit of palm oil price is suppressed by inventory accumulation, but there is strong support at the bottom. It has entered a shock - adjustment stage in the short term [6]. - The supply of soybeans and soybean meal is generally loose in the first quarter, and weak breeding demand restricts the spot price. It has stopped falling and stabilized in the short term [7]. - Geopolitical risks support gold, but excessive bullishness is not recommended. Attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances and the interaction between gold and silver [7]. - The capital market is loose, but there is a marginal tightening, which is generally negative for the bond market. Treasury bonds show increased volatility [7]. - The over - estimation of copper demand in AI data centers may weaken the support for copper prices. Copper prices are expected to maintain a high - level shock pattern [8]. - Geopolitical factors support oil prices. It is advisable to wait and see for now [9]. - The inventory of plastic production enterprises has decreased, but demand is still weak. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [11]. - The domestic soda ash market shows general trends, with high - level inventory rising significantly. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [12]. - PTA is in a shock - transition stage [12]. - Natural rubber is expected to show wide - range fluctuations [13]. Summary by Variety Silver - The US economy shows moderate growth, and industrial demand supports silver. However, the impact of gold fluctuations on silver needs attention [1]. Methanol - Port inventory is 143.53 million tons, a weekly decrease of 10.19 million tons. Production enterprise inventory is 45.09 million tons, a slight weekly increase of 0.32 million tons. The market price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2,257 yuan/ton, remaining stable. The weekly production capacity utilization rate is 91.42%, a 1.01% increase. The downstream total production capacity utilization rate is 73.54%, a 0.49% weekly decrease. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [2]. Steel and Iron Ore - Steel: On January 14, the domestic steel market fluctuated. The ex - factory price of billets in Tangshan Qian'an was stable at 2,970 yuan/ton. The average price of 20mm third - grade seismic - resistant rebar in 31 major cities was 3,342 yuan/ton, remaining stable. High costs support steel prices, but weak demand restricts increases. It is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term [4]. - Iron ore: From January 5th to 11th, the total arrival volume of 47 ports in China was 3.015 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 190.3 million tons. The supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, but winter storage replenishment by steel mills provides short - term support [4]. Ferrosilicon - The sample开工率 of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises is 29.63%, a 0.09% weekly increase. The daily output is 14,155 tons, a 0.14% increase. There is a possibility of increased supply pressure in the future [5]. Livestock - Pig: On January 14, the average pork price in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 18.06 yuan/kg, a 0.1% increase. The national pig price shows mixed trends, and prices are expected to fluctuate in a range after a short - term increase [5]. Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Indonesia will raise the export tax on crude palm oil to 12.5% on March 1, 2026. The price is under inventory pressure but has strong support at the bottom, entering a shock - adjustment stage [6]. - Soybean meal: On January 14, the domestic spot price was 3,161 yuan/ton. The supply is generally loose in the first quarter, and it has stopped falling and stabilized in the short term [7]. Precious Metals - Gold: Geopolitical risks support gold, but excessive bullishness is not recommended. Attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances and the interaction between gold and silver [7]. Bonds - Long - term Treasury bonds: The central bank will conduct a 90 - billion - yuan 6 - month repurchase operation on January 15, with an additional 30 - billion - yuan roll - over. The bond market shows increased volatility [7]. Base Metals - Copper: The over - estimation of copper demand in AI data centers may weaken the support for copper prices. Copper prices are expected to maintain a high - level shock pattern [8]. Energy - Crude oil: As of January 9, the total US crude oil inventory increased by 3.605 million barrels week - on - week. Geopolitical factors support oil prices. It is advisable to wait and see for now [9]. Plastics - Plastic: The mainstream price of LLDPE in North China is 6,967 yuan/ton, a 62 - yuan increase. The weekly output is 301,600 tons, a 4.45% decrease. The production enterprise inventory is 122,400 tons, a 15.53% decrease. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [11]. Chemicals - Soda ash: The national mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash is 1,236 yuan/ton, remaining stable. The weekly output is 753,600 tons, an 8.11% increase. The manufacturer's total inventory is 1.5727 million tons, an 11.67% increase. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [12]. - PTA: The overall inventory of the polyester market is concentrated between 14 and 24 days. It is in a shock - transition stage [12]. Rubber - Natural rubber: The price of raw material glue in Thailand has stopped falling and rebounded. The domestic apparent inventory is accumulating. It is expected to show wide - range fluctuations [13].