山金期货黑色板块日报-20260115

Report Summary 1. Report Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is in the off - season of consumption, showing a situation of weak supply and demand. The arrival of winter storage still needs time. The strong rise of the stock market and optimistic policy expectations boost confidence, but the market supervision's interview with the photovoltaic association and related enterprises has affected market sentiment. For both steel and iron ore, it is recommended to hold long positions for mid - term trading and avoid chasing up or selling down [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - Supply and Demand: Last week, the production of threaded rods increased, the overall inventory continued to decline, the apparent demand for threaded rods decreased, the overall apparent demand for the five major steel products declined, the inventory increased, and production slightly rebounded. In the off - season, the steel mill production may continue to decline [2]. - Operation Suggestion: Hold long positions for mid - term trading, and avoid chasing up or selling down [2]. - Data Highlights: - The closing price of the threaded rod main contract is 3162 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan (0.13%) from the previous day and down 25 yuan (- 0.78%) from last week. - The 247 steel - mill blast furnace operating rate is 78.94%, up 0.62 percentage points; the daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills is 229.5 million tons, up 2.07 million tons (0.91%) [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - Supply and Demand: The overall production of the five major steel products increased last week, but the apparent demand decreased month - on - month. The market is in the off - season, and the molten iron output is likely to decline seasonally. Although the molten iron output of 247 sample steel mills rebounded by about 2.1 million tons last week, it is expected to be a short - term phenomenon. The arrival of pre - festival restocking demand will be later than usual this year due to the late Spring Festival. Global shipments have declined, and the rising port inventory suppresses the futures price. The sharp rebound of coking coal and coke supports the price of iron ore [3]. - Operation Suggestion: Hold long positions for mid - term trading [3]. - Data Highlights: - The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 821 yuan/dry ton, up 1.5 yuan (0.18%) from the previous day and down 7 yuan (- 0.85%) from last week. - The Australian iron ore shipments are 1659.5 million tons, down 39 million tons (- 2.30%) [4]. 3.3 Industry News - In December 2025, Mongolia's coal exports were 10.9291 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.83% and a year - on - year increase of 71.31%. From January to December 2025, Mongolia's cumulative coal exports were 90.0182 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.48% [6]. - HeSteel obtained the first steel export license order in Hebei Province for 2026, which will be shipped to Chittagong, Bangladesh [6]. - As of the week ending January 14, according to Zhaogang.com, the national building materials production was 4.4952 million tons, an increase of 0.042 million tons from last week; the factory inventory was 3.8945 million tons, a decrease of 0.0565 million tons from last week; the social inventory was 3.5609 million tons, an increase of 0.121 million tons from last week [6]. - In December, China imported 119.647 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates and 58.597 million tons of coal and lignite [6].